- The secondary watch market has declined over the past two years.
- But watches from the Big Three brands — Rolex, Patek Phillipe, and Audemars Piguet — are still reselling for higher than their retail prices.
- These are the models that are the best investment right now.
2024 has not been kind to the watch market.
After peaking in May 2022, watch prices on the secondary market have fallen for nine straight quarters, according to a report from WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley.
The Big Three watchmakers — Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet — have been more easily able to meet demand, in some instances due to increased production and in others due to declining sales as the luxury market struggles amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, inventory is flooding the resale market as those who purchased watches as an investment when the market was hot rush to cash out. There are now four times as many preowned watches on the market as there were at the start of 2021.
“Once they see the prices falling and that there’s less liquidity in the market, they try to sell,” Charles Tian, the founder and CEO of WatchCharts, told Business Insider of traders. “That floods the market with inventory and inevitably drives prices down.”
But there are bright spots. The Big Three still rack up waitlists. 63% of Rolex models are trading above retail, according to the WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley report. That number is 60% for Piguet and 41% for Patek Phillipe.
Prices on the secondary market are dictated by supply and demand.
“Luxury brands like Rolex and Audemars Piguet have a strategy of maintaining limited availability at official retailers, which often means that many of their most desirable models are perpetually sold out in stores,” Paul Altieri, the founder and CEO of online luxury watch retailer Bob’s Watches, said of the Big Three manufacturers, likening them to luxury fashion players like Hermès.
“Anytime you have demand exceeding supply, where the supply is limited, or demand is hyperinflated, you get this big disparity between secondary market value and retail price,” he added.
Recognizable models like the Rolex Daytona or GMT-Master II are perpetually in high demand, Tian said, while other styles can rocket into the stratosphere because of social media trends.
Other styles, like the Rolex Oyster Perpetual in Turquoise Celebration, have rare features, like a colorful dial, making them highly desirable, Björn Rüstmann, the lead data communications strategist at luxury watch marketplace Chrono24, told Business Insider.
Chrono24 looked at its top-performing brands and pulled the 10 models selling at the highest premiums over the manufacturer’s suggested retail price.
While the numbers suggest these models make the smartest investments, Altieri warns against buying a watch solely because of its resale value.
“Find something you are going to enjoy, not something that you think will go up in value,” he said. “Quality assets always go up in value, whether it’s real estate, stocks, arts, or watches, so buy what you like.”
