- US unemployment claims fell more than expected.
- Business activity in the US manufacturing and services sectors improved.
- Market participants will pay attention to Australia’s inflation data.
The AUD/USD weekly forecast indicates continued resilience in the US economy, keeping the dollar firm against the Australian dollar.
Ups and downs of AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair ended the week down as the dollar rose after upbeat US economic data. At the same time, Middle East tensions increased demand for the greenback. The US released two significant reports on jobless claims and business activity.
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Unemployment claims fell more than expected, indicating tight labor market conditions. As a result, rate cut expectations eased, boosting the dollar. A separate report revealed that business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors improved as demand increased. At the same time, the war between Israel and Hezbollah escalated, sending traders to haven assets like the dollar.
Next week’s key events for AUD/USD
In the coming week, market participants will pay attention to Australia’s inflation data. Meanwhile, the US will release data on GDP manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls. Australia’s CPI numbers will significantly shape the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. If inflation surprises to the upside, the Aussie will rally as rate-cut expectations fall.
On the other hand, the nonfarm payrolls report will be among the last significant reports before the Fed’s November meeting. An upbeat report will likely lower the likelihood of a rate cut. On the other hand, an unexpected decline in job growth could bring back bets for a super-sized rate cut.
AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: 0.6650 break confirms new downtrend
On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has reversed to the downside on the daily chart. Bears took control when the price broke below the 22-SMA support line. Moreover, the price broke below the 0.6650 support to make a lower low, confirming the reversal. Meanwhile, the RSI has dipped into bearish territory and trades near the oversold region, suggesting solid momentum.
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Furthermore, AUD/USD has broken below the 0.5 Fib retracement level, signaling a significant pullback or reversal. The solid bearish bias means the price will likely retest the 0.6501 next week. Additionally, the price might make the first lower high, further confirming the new downtrend. This bias will remain as long as the price stays below the 22-SMA and the RSI trades below 50.
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