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Currencies and metals end week, last, on better footing…
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Trump’s tariffs already taking effect…
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals didn’t start out their spring Training session on the right foot, as they lost both of their first two games… I was disgusted by the relief pitching in both games, and when we left the game yesterday, Kathy said “I can’t believe you get so upset by spring training games”. Of which, I replied, “All these pitchers are trying out to see if they belong in the majors… This doesn’t bode well for the relief corps this year” I know, I know, it’s only two games… It’s supposed to be a real rain soaker today, so I doubt I’ll be going to the game today… Procol Harum greets me this morning with their song, and the song that I’ve said before, I like better than their hit song: Conquistador…
Last Thursday, the markets took a chunk out of the dollar’s armor, as the BBDXY lost 8 index points… All because of a weak stronger than expected Initial Weekly Jobless Claims report… In addition, the leading Indicator for Jan, printed a negative -.3%, so questions were abound about just how “resilient” , and one Fed head described the U.S. economy last week. That 8-point loss in the BBDXY was HUGE, and one that I feared would bring about the PPT to do some dollar buying to stem the loss. But on Friday, there was no sign of the PPT, but the fear that they are lurking in a dark alley somewhere, was enough to keep the dollar from falling more On Friday, as it did gain back 4 index point, on Friday, but that was it…
Gold had a good day, last Thursday, as it gained $14, and Silver gained 24-cents… So, the previous Thursday was Gold’s day to get the stuffing knocked out it, and this last Thursday was the day the dollar got the stuffing knocked out of it… Thursdays are not good days, because that’s the day I infusions! On Friday, the Gold Bugs tried like hell to keep the short paper traders from ruling the day, but at the end of day, the dirty, rotten Ba$#%#s won, because Gold dropped $2 to end the week at $2,935, and Silver, really go the snot kicked out of it, and lost 46-cents to end the week $32.43…
All I can say about the short paper trading is that, to date, the physical buying of Gold & Silver has helped keep the pressure on the short paper traders… But it’s still not enough… We need to get American investors turned around to see that Gold has outperformed stocks… Not the S&P, but the DOW… And get these investors looking to allocating a portion of their investment portfolio to Gold & Silver. That’s when the short paper traders will throw in the towel, and not before, because there will be nobody going to jail, thus scaring the traders out of their wits…
The price of Oil slipped late last week and ended the week trading with a $70 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield really saw some downward movement late last week, and ended the week with a 4.43% yield…
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar saw a little slippage, losing 1 index point overnight. Gold is up $11 to start the day/ week and Silver is down 4-cents to start the day/ week this morning. Silver’s 4-cent loss is easily turned around., so what are waiting for? A laced-lined invitation to buy? Well, you aren’t going to get one from me! Just a swift kick in the rear to get you off your duff and buy! HAHAHA!
There was no movement in the price of Oil or the yield in the 10-year overnight… So we start our week with an Oil price of $70 and a 10-year yield of 4.43%
I read this morning that Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from the Eurozone, have already been effective, even though they don’t officially take place until March 12… Nothing like ticking off your allies, eh? Hey, the POTUS didn’t write the book on how to Win Friends and Influence People! That got my mind wandering off here folks… Long ago, when I was a young man, I’ve told you that I was such a different person, very short-tempered and dominating… One time I was at my desk eating lunch and reading a book on “how to dominate people”, and my boss walked by and laughed, and said, “I would have thought that you wrote that book!” That woke me up, for sure… And an eventual change took place in me…
I like the commercial on TV where JJ Watt, the former defensive player of the year in the NFL, says “It’s not about how many people you can knock down, but how many you can lift up”…
OK, onto something else… Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, has their general election yesterday, and talk about people that take their voting seriously…. 83% of registered voters showed up to vote! That blows our numbers out of the water, and we’re supposed to be the beacon for democracy… It appears that new coalition Gov’t will take over in Germany, and maybe they can get the country out of its malaise…
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has a “closed” sign hanging from its door, as there are no data prints scheduled for today… And the Cupboard will repeat this empty feeling until Thursday (there’s that day again!) and Friday, when the data will ramp up to a crescendo… And then, it will be March!
To recap… The dollar got whacked on Thursday last week, and since dollar trades are somewhat leery about taking the dollar lower, with the PPT lurking in a dark alley, somewhere… Gold saw a good ending to last week, and starts today up $11… Trump’s tariffs on steel don’t begin until March 12, but their effects on trades with the Eurozone are already feeling some pressure…
For What It’s Worth… Well, I was so amped up about the first spring training game this past weekend that I usually use to scour the earth in search of a FWIW article, that I failed to do just that…
Here’s your snippet: “At the end of Q4 2024, commercial real estate continued to exhibit severe weakness, with commercial real estate bonds hitting record distress levels, surpassing the previous records reached in Q3 2024. Commercial real estate bonds are just commercial real estate loans packaged into securities and sold to investors. One category of bonds, commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”), saw their distress rate increase to 10.6 percent, a fourth consecutive monthly record.
Most notably, in the CMBS category—which comprises approximately $625 billion in outstanding commercial real estate debt—loans on office properties now exhibit a distress rate above 17 percent while apartment loan distress accelerated to 12.5 percent. While loans underlying CMBS bonds—which are generally longer-term and fixed-rate—appear woefully insolvent, another group of bonds comprising short-term floating-rate commercial real estate loans are even worse.
These bridge loans—which are packaged up into CRE-CLO (commercial real estate-collateralized loan obligation) bonds—represent roughly $75 billion of outstanding commercial real estate debt today. At year-end, they were sporting a 13.8 percent distress rate, eclipsing the prior record of 13.1 percent set at the end of Q3 2024.
As bad as the above stats may seem, they do not convey the true extent of malinvestment in commercial real estate, and the consequences thereof. For starters, the analysis leaves out the market for bank lending in commercial real estate—the largest source and the hardest for which to find data—comprising roughly $3 trillion in outstanding loans.
Simple distress rates also fail to recognize the potential for distress in nominally healthy loans, only identifying those that have explicitly been deemed distressed. In this case, distressed means 30 days or more delinquent on a payment, past the maturity date, currently in special servicing (a condition where property performance puts the health of a loan in jeopardy or specific loan agreement clauses have been violated), or a combination thereof.”
Chuck Again… Well, out of sight, out of mind, has been he CRE problem for me, but not any longer.. Just simply another sign that the U.S. economy is NOT resilient. I’m just saying…
Market Prices 2/24/2025: American Style: A$ .6367, kiwi .5746, C$ .7021, euro 1.0470, sterling 1.2635, Swiss $1.1117, European Style: rand 18.3452, krone 11.0119, SEK 10.6430, forint 383.93, zloty 3.9646, koruna 23.9465, RUB 87.45, yen 149.67, sing 1.3378, HKD 7.7736, INR 86.70, China 7.2604, peso 20.41, BRL 5.7094, BBDXY 1,385., Dollar Index 106.63, Oil $70.51, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $32.47, Platinum $968.00, Palladium $961.00, Copper $4.58, and Gold… $2,947.29.
That’s it for today… I don’t want to have missed this tomorrow after I hit send, so I’ll mention it today… This Friday, the 28th, would be my closest sister’s birthday.. Barbara, or Barbie doll, as I always called her, died in 2018, from ALS… (Lou Gehrig’s disease) Barie doll and me were only 1 year apart in school, so she would help with stuff that she already suffered through, and we became so close… I remember when she was getting very bad with ALS, and asked me to help her with retirement paperwork… I remember sitting in my car after our visit and crying my eyes out at bad she had the disease… It wasn’t that much longer that she passed. Miss you Barbie doll! Dire Straits take us to the finish line today with their song: Sultans of Swing… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and that didn’t ruin your day with my sad story, and please Be Good To Yourself!
