NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Speculators
have built their most bearish-ever January view across U.S.
grains and oilseeds, and the collective net short is among the
largest on record, driven by further selling in soybeans and
meal last week.
Money managers’ combined net short across Chicago-traded
corn, wheat, soybeans and soy products, plus Kansas City and
Minneapolis wheat, totaled 554,019 futures and options contracts
as of Jan. 23. That is the sixth-largest all-time behind five
weeks in April and May 2019.
Soybean meal was the only major CBOT grain or oilseed to
notch losses in the week ended Jan. 23, falling nearly 3%.
Soybeans were up 1%, wheat rose 2.5%, soybean oil rose 2% and
corn was up 0.7%.
But funds were sellers of corn and soybeans that week
despite the pop off multi-year lows. The managed money net short
in CBOT corn futures and options rose by less than 5,000
contracts to 265,285 contracts, though new gross longs entered
the mix for the first time in a month.
That is funds’ most bearish corn stance for the date and is
among the most bearish all-time, behind a few weeks in 2019 and
2020.
Money managers expanded their net short in CBOT soybean
futures and options to 91,842 contracts from 76,797 a week
earlier, marking their most bearish soy position since February
2020. Gross longs have come out of the market for 10 consecutive
weeks through Jan. 23.
The epic soybean meal sell-off continued through Jan. 23, as
money managers increased their net short by nearly 15,000
contracts to 19,016 futures and options contracts, the most
bearish since October 2021.
In the eight weeks through Jan. 23, funds were net sellers
of nearly 155,000 meal contracts of 100 short tons each. Prior
to 2024, the largest eight-week meal sell-off was under 100,000
contracts.
Open interest in CBOT corn, soybean and soybean meal futures
and options continued the upward surge last week, rising 6%, 7%
and 3%, respectively, in the week ended Jan. 23. Corn open
interest is average for the date and soybeans are above average,
but meal open interest is easily record-high for January.
The selling trend continued between Wednesday and Friday, as
most-active soybeans lost 2.4% and soymeal shed
3.4%, though corn futures were basically unchanged. Corn
and soybeans avoided fresh lows in the last three sessions, but
soymeal futures finished at $349 per short ton on Friday, their
lowest settle in more than two years.
Excellent weather in top meal exporter Argentina has weighed
on the market as has better weather for Brazil, which is in the
early stages of harvesting what is expected to be a sufficiently
large soybean crop. U.S. corn export sales have been average
though those of soybeans are sluggish, reflecting sagging demand
in China and ample supplies in South America.
Most-active CBOT wheat futures continue to hover
around $6 per bushel, though soybean oil has been sinking
for months, reaching an eight-month low of 46.08 cents per pound
on Friday.
Money managers hold decently large net shorts in both wheat
and soyoil, but there has been little change in recent weeks.
They were mild net buyers of both in the week ended Jan. 23.
Both the CBOT wheat net short of 64,541 futures and options
contracts and the soyoil net short of 44,705 contracts as of
Jan. 23 are consistent with the previous few weeks’ averages.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed
above are her own.
(Writing by Karen Braun
Editing by Matthew Lewis)
