Sensex Today : Market Highlights : Sensex ends above 400 pts, Nifty at 21,900; Broader markets hold gains

Indian benchmark indices ended higher on Tuesday. Sensex touched an intraday high of 72,261.40 , while Nifty peaked at 21,951.40.

At close, Sensex was up 454.67 points or 0.63% at 72,186.09 and Nifty was up 167.45 points or 0.77% at 21,939.15.

In the broader market, MidCap and SmallCap indices were up over 1%, while across sectors, the Nifty IT gained nearly 3% and Nifty Oil & Gas gained over 2.5%. Other indices including Auto, Pharma, Healthcare and Metal, were up over 1%. Losers were Bank, Financial Services and FMCG.

World share indexes rose on Tuesday, boosted by a sharp rise in Chinese stocks as Beijing ramped up efforts to put a floor under its slumping market, while government bond yields in Europe and the U.S. dipped slightly, after two days of large increases.

A slew of announcements from China’s securities regulator, a reported meeting between President Xi Jinping and financial regulators, and Chinese state fund Central Huijin Investment saying it has expanded its scope of investment in exchange-trade funds, on Tuesday, highlighted the urgency with which Chinese authorities are trying to stem heavy losses in its stock market.

China’s blue-chip index plunged to a five-year low last week on the back of the country’s ailing economy, which had prompted state-backed investors, dubbed the “national team”, to step up their buying of blue-chip stock tracking index funds to support the market. [.SS]

The CSI300 jumped 3.5%% in the wake of Tuesday’s developments, its biggest one-day percentage gain since 2022, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 4%, its most in a day in six months.

The gains in China also helped European shares higher, with the broad STOXX 600 benchmark up 0.26% holding near last week’s two-year high.

Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures edged 0.1% higher.

Digital spends see double-digit growth

Momentum maintained in ad spends; e-commerce outperforms

Digital ad tech giants have reported a sharp rebound in advertising spends as ad revenue for Alphabet/Meta grew 11% YoY/24.2% YoY in Q4CY23, the highest since the past four quarters. This was helped by: 1) festive season, 2) better growth in emerging nations and 3) traction in online commerce vertical for advertising spends. Growth was dominated by impressions yet again, as pricing was largely flat. E-commerce sales – 3P/1P – for Amazon saw strong growth of 19.9% YoY/8.9% YoY in Q4CY23. Subscription revenue grew 14.1% YoY for Prime, and advertising revenue for the e-commerce giant grew 26.8%, led by a mix of display and video advertising.

AI-led digital advertising – Driving better conversions

Alphabet is planning to invest aggressively in the connected TV segment, as that is a large driver for ad spends. YouTube ads are also undergoing a change from pure image ads to visual formats, which is driving a higher conversion rate. Most companies are also investing to provide measurement capability for advertising efforts, so as to drive better ROI for the advertiser. Meta continues to invest in generative AI-led features to drive ad revenue growth and may also develop automation tools to drive higher online sales.

Read-through for Indian listed companies

We continue to believe that e-commerce advertising in India may sustain its outperformance versus other segments of digital advertising (social, search, video), which may benefit companies such as Jio Platforms (RIL), Nykaa, Zomato and other Indian e-commerce names. This can become a potential driver for profitability for new age companies.

As per our assessment, advertising revenue for e-commerce could be led by: 1) increased customer adoption/penetration, 2) opening up to multiple categories (traditional verticals increasing ad.spends on digital) and 3) innovative means of digital advertising on e-commerce (videos and promotions). This in turn may drive the need for more customer conversion and augur well for programmatic players such as Affle. Continued momentum in YouTube ad revenues will augur well for listed news led broadcasters (TVT) and music labels (TIPS, Saregama).

Further, connected TV (CTV) is also a big opportunity for ad tech players in India. We will continue to monitor trends and penetration of CTV, coupled with any potential solution (measurement mechanism) that can drive better ad spends on the platform. AI-led digital advertising is the need of the hour and programmatic players may need to migrate towards the same to drive efficiencies, just like the global tech giants which are aggressively investing into AI led advertising.

Hunger games

Increased adoption: double-digit growth intact in India’s QSR space

India’s QSR chain market is set to post a market size CAGR of 32% during FY23-27, well ahead of its F&B industry growth rate of 19%, and ahead of global counterparts (Source: Technopak), led by 1) increased per capita income at a CAGR of 4% during FY15-22, 2) acceptance in the non-metro markets, 3) increased delivery revenue in post-COVID era, and 4) strong expansion by new & existing firms. Within organized QSR, KFC India posted 30% CAGR during FY19-23 vs peers across categories that have grown by a mere 17% during the same period.

No longer the boss: competition, fried chicken muscles in pizza share

The post COVID era has worked unfavorably for pizza on 1) new and existing companies expanding aggressively (increased competition) , 2) scale up in delivery offerings by aggregators, which have increased variety (pizza was the only category which has ~60% delivery revenue as on FY20); this, in turn, has led to the category losing market share by 500bp during FY17-22. Pan-India, penetration of pizza outlets is double than that of fried chicken; India has 3.9 pizza outlets per mn vs a mere 1.05 fried chicken outlets per mn, which shows penetration opportunity for fried chicken. In large metro cities, the penetration of Domino’s & Pizza Hut based on population is 4-6x that of KFC (Mumbai has 11.5 Domino’s & PH stores per mn vs KFC’s mere 1.8). Fried chicken would continue to outperform pizza on 1) new store expansion, and 2) adoption of non-vegetarian food (~70% of Indians are non-vegetarian), which would drive better same store sales growth (SSSG) than peers.

Key lever hits a plateau: delivery revenue at ~42% in the near term

Most non-pizza QSR chains had a delivery revenue share of 22-25% pre-COVID, which has reached 35-38% in the post COVID era, led by 1) aggregators scaling up delivery offerings, 2) brands working on better packaging for delivery, and 3) more customers ordering products other than pizza. We believe expansion in delivery contribution is a key lever behind better SSSG for the non-pizza category; menu innovation and increased adoption of non-pizza food would be growth drivers; however, we do not expect fried chicken and burgers to expand more than 40%-42% in delivery contribution in the near term, as consumers return to restaurants and most non pizza chains will continue to drive a bigger share of revenue (~55%-60%) from dine-in, due to their larger store size. Although we believe delivery contribution may not move way too much beyond 40% in the near term, there is still room for some expansion.

Our outlook: selective positive stance; top picks – DEVYANI & SAPPHIRE

We are selectively positive on India’s QSR sector and prefer Devyani International (DEVYANI IN) and Sapphire Foods (SAPPHIRE IN) due to their focus on KFC, which is heavily underpenetrated in India vs pizza franchises. We initiate on DEVYANI and SAPPHIRE with a Buy rating and a SOTP-based TP of INR 210 and INR 1,740. We initiate Restaurant Brands Asia (RBA IN) with an Accumulate rating with a SOTP-based TP of INR 130. We retain Reduce on Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI IN) and Westlife Foodworld (WLDL IN) with an unchanged TP of INR 500 (on 31x FY26E pre-IndAS EV/EBITDA) and INR 880 (on 34x FY26E pre-IndAS EV/EBITDA) respectively.

Benchmark indices climbed after momentarily slipping into the red in the morning.

At 3 pm, Sensex was up 401.22 points or 0.56% at 72,132.64 and Nifty was up 144.75 points or 0.66% at 21,916.45.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country’s largest IT firm, achieved a historic milestone in today’s trading session by reaching a market capitalisation of ₹15 lakh crore, a first-time achievement for the company. The Tata Group is the second-most valuable Indian firm.

In today’s trading session, TCS shares gained 4% to achieve a new peak of ₹4,135 apiece, surpassing their previous best of ₹4,043. Notably, the stock crossed the ₹4,000 mark after 12 months. From the October low of ₹2,926, the stock has seen a sharp recovery, and it is up by nearly 40% to date. (Read the full story here.)

A momentous shift is under way in global markets as investors pull billions of dollars from China’s sputtering economy, two decades after betting on the country as the world’s biggest growth story.

Much of that cash is now heading for India, with Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley endorsing the South Asian nation as the prime investment destination for the next decade. (Read the full story here.)

The earnings for the December quarter (Q3FY24) so far have been in line with estimates for the most part and grew 34 percent YoY (vs estimate of 28 percent YoY). Once again, the earnings growth was fueled by domestic cyclicals, such as BFSI (bank, financial services, and insurance) and Auto, stated a report by domestic brokerage house Motilal Oswal (MOSL).

As of February 1, 2024, 33 companies within the Nifty announced their Q3FY24 results. These companies constitute a) 73 percent and 74 percent of the estimated PAT for the MOFSL and Nifty Universe, respectively; b) 48 percent of India’s market capitalisation; and c) 77 percent weightage in the Nifty, informed the brokerage. (Read the full story here.)

Paytm’s Founder-CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma, held discussions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on February 5, to address regulatory concerns, Reuters reported citing two sources. This comes in the wake of regulatory curbs imposed on its banking affiliate — Paytm Payments Bank Limited (PPBL).

The central bank had on January 30 directed PPBL to cease accepting new deposits in its accounts and digital wallets from March. The action was taken due to supervisory concerns and non-compliance with rules, leading to a decline in Paytm’s shares. (Read the full story here.)

Godrej Properties on Tuesday reported a consolidated net profit of ₹62.47 crore for the quarter ended December 2023, registering a 6% growth from ₹58.49 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue of the real estate major Godrej Properties in Q3FY24 rose 68% to ₹330.44 crore from ₹196.23 crore, year-on-year (YoY). (Read the full story here.)

Rating: ACCUMULATE

Target Price : INR 700

Upside : 9%

CMP : INR 640 (as on 05 February 2024)

Growth tepid; asset resolutions pick pace

Topline pressures sustain, NIMs peak out, high provisions drag PAT

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) posted yet another soft earnings set, presided by: (a) flat NII (0.4% QoQ dip) as retail disbursements lagged with intensifying competition and continued down-trending of high-yielding wholesale book. NIMs were largely flat QoQ at 3%. (b) Technological glitches hit business traction, with flat QoQ/5% YoY loan growth. (c) Provisions were tad higher by 4% QoQ. While the management is confident of improving growth trajectory, MoM disbursement traction is still volatile and NIMs have peaked out. LICHF guided NIMs to be in the range of 2.8-3%. We expect 2.9% NIM, led by healthy liability management although growth headwinds continue to cloud earnings.

Business reorientation, slowing developer loans to hurt growth

As project loans were pared down (11% QoQ drop), overall loans rose 1.2% in Q3. Also, individual home loan + LAP disbursements have been volatile, with continued rundown of wholesale piece, signaling sustained sluggish trend, near-to-medium term. While tech glitches were to blame, LICHF has been unable to ride the sectoral tailwinds, especially in mid-high ticket residential segment – High prepayments at 10%+ are testimony. Q4 may be better, led by some drawdowns from healthy INR 45bn sanction pipeline. Expect FY24E annual loan growth in single-digit at 8% and FY25E-26E in 13-15%.

Stage 2 stock halves, resolution of developer loans picking pace

Q3 saw some material improvement in asset quality. While Stage 3 declined slightly to 4.26% from 4.33% in Q2, individual home loan NPAs fell from 1.84% in Q2FY24 to 1.71% in Q3FY24, with no write-offs in Q3. Stage 2 stock halved QoQ, mainly as a developer account (INR 4.5bn, 40% provisioning) moved to Stage 3. Almost 10 chunky developer accounts will be taking the ARC route soon. While the management is guiding for improving credit cost, recoveries are confounding given comprehensive NCLT/ARC procedures. Our apprehensions on asset quality stay – We maintain GNPA estimates at average 3.2% and credit costs at average 73bps in FY24E-26E.

Valuations: Maintain Accumulate; TP raised to INR 700

While growth has been the point of contention for a while, persistent competitive headwinds and wholesale clean-up continue to restrict near-term prospects too. That said, asset quality resolutions have begun accelerating with both individual home and developer NPAs exhibiting material downtrend. Incremental provisions may normalize, yet RoEs are restricted to an average 15% in FY24E-26E. Hence, we reiterate Accumulate albeit with a raised TP of INR 700 (earlier INR472) as we value LICHF at 1.4x FY25E P/ABV (earlier 1.1x). But we remain circumspect on the overall book quality and growth momentum.

The Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, traded over half a percent higher on Tuesday led by gains in IT, pharma, energy and auto stocks amid mixed global market cues.

Broader markets also supported the upmove as the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices gained over 0.6% each.

Markets continue to witness stock specific reactions amid the ongoing corporate earnings seasons for the December quarter of FY24. Investors will now watch for key triggers including the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy this week. (Read the full story here.)

Benchmark indices climbed after momentarily slipping into the red in the morning.

At 2 pm, Sensex was up 440.40 points or 0.61% at 72,171.82 and Nifty was up 148.05 points or 0.68% at 21,919.75.

The initial public offering (IPO) of Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited is going to hit the Indian primary market today. The company has fixed the Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels IPO price band at ₹147 to ₹155 per equity share. The book build issue will remain open till 7th February 2024. The public offer is proposed for listing on BSE and NSE. The hospitality company aims to raise ₹920 crore from its book-build offer.

Meanwhile, on Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels’ IPO opening date, company shares are available for trade in the gray market. According to stock market observers, shares of Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited are available at a premium of ₹62 in the grey market today, say market observers. (Read the full story here.)

Paytm founder-CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma is facing a severe crisis as his brainchild and India’s beloved unicorn success story, Paytm Payments Bank (PPBL) navigates stringent directives issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

PPBL, an affiliate of One97 Communications Limited, is 51 percent owned by Sharma. Commencing operations in 2017, it offers various digital banking services, including savings accounts, current accounts, and FASTag. The RBI recently instructed PPBL to cease further deposits, credit transactions, and top-ups on customer accounts after February 29. This move raises concerns about the bank’s future viability. (Read the full story here.)

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s group is in talks to raise about $500 million via dollar bonds, its first overseas issuance since a report by a US short seller last year prompted concerns about the conglomerate’s ability to refinance borrowings.

Solar energy-producer Adani Green Energy Ltd. is discussing the planned transaction with a group of foreign banks, including a US firm, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. The sale, expected later this year, is yet to be finalized and the terms may still change. (Read the full story here.)

Benchmark indices were up after momentarily slipping into the red in the morning.

At 1 pm, Sensex was up 333.78 points or 0.47% at 72,065.20 and Nifty was up 113.25 points or 0.52% at 21,884.95.

Rating: ACCUMULATE

Target Price : INR 1463

Upside : 12%

CMP : INR 1303 (as on 05 February 2024)

Promising volume outlook

Strong growth in India and international markets

In Q4CY23, Varun Beverages’ (VBL IN) net sales grew 20.5% YoY as volume surged 18.2% YoY, led by strong volume growth in both India (+18.9% YoY, four-year CAGR: +16.2%) and international (+13.5% YoY, four-year CAGR: +20.4%) businesses. Overall, realisation per case rose 5.2% YoY to INR 175.7 in CY23, on account of mix-enhancement in favor of smaller SKUs in Indian markets. High unseasonal rains during the peak season resulted in 13.9% volume growth in CY23.

Capacity expansion to bolster next leg of growth

VBL plans a capex of INR 36bn in CY24, with INR 30bn aimed at the Indian markets and the rest at international markets, while net capex in CY23 stood at INR 21 bn. Moreover, VBL is set to increase its production capacity by 45% for the upcoming season from CY22 levels in India, on the back of new greenfield capacities in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and brownfield expansion of six other facilities. The capacity for juices segment will be increased 200% YoY in CY24, thus bolstering growth. Nevertheless, CSD and Energy drinks will be key growth levers for the company. Sting contributed 15% to the overall sales volume in CY23.

Favorable input pricing improved margins

In CY23, gross margin improved 137bps YoY to 53.8%, primarily due to softening of PET chips prices, but partly offset by marginal increase in sugar prices during the year. EBITDA margin expanded 133bps YoY to 22.5%, led by gross margin gains. The management sustains its conservative EBITDA margin guidance at 21-22% going forward as well.

Valuation: reiterate Accumulate with higher TP of INR 1,463

We raise CY24E/25E earnings estimates 6.8%/12.4% to factor in higher revenue growth due to recent acquisition and improved volume growth outlook for India business.

We reiterate Accumulate with a higher TP of INR 1,463 from INR 1,180, as we assign 55x on CY25E (from 45x) given 30% earnings CAGR in CY23-25E, the highest in our FMCG universe. Key downside risk is lower-than-estimated volume growth.

Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs244 | TP: ₹257

Update – Muted quarter; Turnkey margin improves

Quick Pointers:

Order book stands at Rs79.9bn (2.4x TTM revenue).

Management lowered FY24 revenue guidance to Rs35bn (~5% growth vs 10% guided earlier) and retained order inflow guidance of Rs45-47bn.

We revise our FY24/25E EPS estimates by -15.4%/-10.5% as potential change orders may negatively impact Consultancy margins and downgrade our rating to ‘Hold’ from Buy (factoring in steep run-up in the stock price) with SOTP based TP of Rs256 (Rs166 earlier). Engineers India (EIL) reported 3.0% YoY revenue growth with EBITDA margin falling 14bps YoY to 5.8%. Exports are a core focus for the company as it is growing its presence in Algeria and Nigeria, focusing on active oil & gas markets like Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, and penetrating Guyana in South America. Further, a slate of upcoming petrochemical projects, including 3 mega complexes (1 in Nigeria, 2 in India), may provide a boost to the order book. EIL is also focusing on niche projects in data centers, airports, etc. to grow its infrastructure business. There are considerable opportunities in energy transition, including green hydrogen, ethanol blending, SAF, Solar CSP, etc. and EIL aims to expand share of energy transition in the mix from 7-8% to 15-20% in a couple of years.

We believe EIL’s long-term growth prospects remain intact given 1) healthy order book & project pipeline, 2) growing export business, 3) opportunities in decarbonization & energy transition, and 4) lean balance sheet. The stock is trading at a P/E of 27.9x/22.1x on core FY25/26E EPS. We roll forward to Dec-25 valuing the core business at a P/E of 23x Dec-25E. Downgrade to ‘Hold’.

Employee costs impact margin; higher other income aids PAT growth: Consolidated revenue rose 3.0% YoY to Rs8.7bn (PLe: Rs9.2bn). Consultancy & Engineering revenue grew 2.4% YoY to Rs3.7bn, while Turnkey revenue grew 3.5% YoY to Rs5.0bn. Consultancy/Turnkey mix stood at 42.7%/57.3% vs 43.0%/57.0% in Q3FY23. Gross margin increased by 60bps YoY to 44.5% (PLe: 46.5%). EBITDA grew 0.6% YoY to Rs501mn (PLe: Rs900mn). EBITDA margin declined by 14bps YoY to 5.8% (PLe: 9.8%) as higher employee costs (up 8.0% YoY to Rs2.6bn) offset the fall in other expenses (down 4.9% YoY to Rs764mn). Consultancy EBIT margin fell to 18.3% (vs 20.0% in Q3FY23), while Turnkey margin jumped to 4.8% (vs 1.9% in Q3FY23). PAT (ex. JVs/Associates) rose 4.3% YoY to Rs527mn (PLe: Rs861mn), aided by higher other income (up 15.5% YoY to Rs305mn). JVs/Associates recorded profit of Rs103mn vs loss of Rs345mn in Q3FY23.

Growing share of Consultancy and Exports in Rs79.9bn order book: Order inflow came in at Rs6.4bn (vs Rs2.3bn in Q3FY23) – all in the Consultancy segment. Major orders include Rs579mn contract in Algeria and Rs410mn change order at Numaligarh. Order book stands at Rs79.9bn (2.4x TTM revenue) with mix of Consultancy/Turnkey at 59%/41% (vs 57%/43% in Q3FY23) and Domestic/ Exports at 68%/32% (vs 82%/18% in Q3FY23).

Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs474 | TP: ₹636

Update – Robust opportunities across the bio-economy

Quick Pointers:

Policy restricting use of sugar syrup as feedstock impacted Bio Energy execution, leading to 9.1% YoY fall in quarterly revenue.

Higher share of exports & services and lower RM costs drove margins higher.

We revise our FY24/25/26E EPS estimates by -5.2%/+2.1%/+9.2% factoring in lower execution this year followed by strong pipeline of opportunities across segments going forward and upgrade to ‘Buy’ rating from Accumulate with a revised TP of Rs647 (Rs611 earlier). Praj Industries (PRJ) reported mixed quarterly performance with revenue declining 9.1% YoY, while EBITDA margin expanded by 220bps YoY to 11.6%. Restriction on use of sugar syrup in ethanol production delayed execution (syrup-based contracts account for Rs2.5bn in the order book); however, we believe this is likely a temporary phenomenon. The company is aiming for 3x revenue growth by 2030 driven by significant opportunities in exports (energy transition & climate action across the globe, low-carbon ethanol for SAF in US, etc.), ~Rs370bn investment pipeline in CBG, and alternative feedstock in 1G & 2G ethanol.

We remain positive on PRJ in long run given 1) its leadership in domestic ethanol (~50-55% market share), 2) large domestic CBG pipeline, 3) focus on newer technologies like 2G ethanol, bio-manufacturing, SAF, multi feedstock plants, etc. 4) healthy export outlook in Engineering driven by ETCA, and 5) improving margins owing to growing share of services & exports. The stock is trading at a P/E of 25.0x/19.9x FY25/26E. We roll-forward to Dec-25, valuing the stock at a P/E of 28x Dec-25E (30x Sep-25E earlier). Upgrade to ‘Buy’.

Lower execution in Bio Energy drives revenue decline: Consolidated revenue fell 9.1% YoY to Rs8.3bn (PLe: Rs10.2bn), as domestic Bio Energy execution was impacted by the policy restriction on use of sugar syrup as feedstock, with revenue falling 11.6% YoY to Rs5.9bn. Engineering revenue also fell 3.1% YoY to Rs1.7bn, while HiPurity revenue was flattish at Rs700mn. Domestic revenue declined 13% YoY to Rs6.5bn, while exports rose 12% YoY to Rs1.7bn. Gross margin expanded by 700bps YoY to 45.7% (PLe: 42.8%) due to better mix (higher exports and services) and softening material costs. EBITDA grew 12.1% YoY to Rs965mn (PLe: Rs.977mn). EBITDA margin increased by 220bps YoY to 11.6% (PLe: 9.6%), as gross margin expansion was partly offset by higher employee costs (up 26.3% YoY to Rs852mn). PAT rose 13.0% YoY to Rs704mn (PLe: Rs727mn), aided by better operating margins and a lower effective tax rate (23.4% vs 27.9% in Q3FY23), despite interest costs rising sharply to Rs38mn (vs Rs8mn in Q3FY23).

Order book stands healthy at Rs39.5bn with increased export share: Q3 order inflow came in at Rs10.4bn (up 9.9% YoY) owing to healthy growth in Engineering (up 32% YoY to Rs1.2bn) and Bio Energy (up 9% YoY to Rs8.4bn), while HiPurity fell 4% YoY to Rs0.7bn. Order book stands at Rs39.5bn (1.1x TTM revenue) comprising of Bio Energy (77%), HiPurity (6%) and Engineering (17%). Domestic/Export mix in the order book is 75/25% (vs 87/13% in Q3FY23).

It has been a season of milestones, highlighted by India’s ascent to the fourth largest stock market by market capitalization. In a similar vein, auto major Tata Motors has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing Maruti Suzuki to become India’s most valuable auto manufacturer.

Reports indicate that the combined market capitalization of Tata Motors and its DVR (Differential Voting Rights) shares has reached ₹3.24 trillion, edging slightly above Maruti Suzuki’s ₹3.15 trillion. While market positions can fluctuate, with Maruti possibly reclaiming its lead, the essence remains that Tata Motors is now on par with Maruti after a long seven years. (Read the full story here.)

Benchmark indices were inching up at noon, after momentarily slipping into the red in the morning.

At 12 pm, Sensex was up 385.83 points or 0.54% at 72,117.25 and Nifty was up 124.55 points or 0.57% at 21,896.25.

Rating: ACCUMULATE

Target Price : INR 1275

Upside : 7%

CMP : INR 1195 (as on 05 February 2024)

Premium valuations for ordinary growth

Muted organic growth

Affle (AFFLE IN) saw a much-needed respite in organic revenue growth, as international markets (organic) grew 20% YoY (highest over last five quarters), helped by stability in DMs (developed markets) and strong growth in other emerging nations. Festive season may have boosted India geography too, but Gaming vertical played spoilsport led by lower spend due to regulatory overhang (GST).

India market grew mere 1.9% YoY, but excluding the negative impact from the Gaming vertical, growth could have been 20% YoY in Q3. The management indicated further recovery in DMs, going ahead, but the environment continues to be volatile, globally. AFFLE has reasonable exposure in the Fintech vertical and regulatory changes therein too may impact future growth prospects in India.

EBITDA margin in a narrow band

Profitability woes persist, as EBITDA margin declined 80bps QoQ, despite pricing growth of 2.4% QoQ. This drop was largely due to higher data costs and employee expenses. We continue to believe that third-party data costs may escalate going ahead for mobile/browser usage, due to data privacy measures globally and in India. This in turn may strain AFFLE’s margin (besides lower organic growth due to volatile environment as regards advertising spends). The EBITDA margin for AFFLE may remain in a narrow band of 19.5-20.5%, over FY24E-26E with limited levers for margin expansion.

Valuation: Downgrade to Accumulate; TP pared to INR 1,275

We believe non-India, emerging nations’ businesses (organic) may continue to post the strongest growth due to penetration opportunity. India organic business growth rate too may converge to 10-12% YoY on a steady-state, near term, whereas DM growth rates could be towards mid-to-high single digit. Thus, AFFLE may post an organic revenue growth of 15-17% near term. We have factored in an inorganic growth of ~4-5% annually, per earlier guidance. AFFLE may report revenue/earnings CAGR of 22.5%/24.8% in FY23-26E and valuation at 35.2x FY26E P/E largely factors in positive impact.

We revise our FY25E/FY26E earnings estimates by (3.8%)/(5.1%) on lower revenue growth, which is offset by higher other income in FY25E/26E as AFFLE raised INR 7.5bn via a preferential issue. Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy with TP pared to INR 1,275 from INR 1,350, on 37x one-year forward earnings. Improved margin trajectory with no threat of higher data costs and better organic growth across geographies may drive upgrades.

Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs640 | TP: Rs540

Q3FY24 Result Update – NIM surprise continues but we remain cautious

Quick Pointers:

Earnings beat led by better NIM; loan offtake remains weak.

Company expects disbursals to normalize in FY25, as tech issues sorted.

LICHF saw a mixed quarter. PAT was a beat by 7.3% to PLe due to higher NII/NIM but loan growth remains muted at 4.8% YoY. While company expects a 10-15bps YoY compression in FY25E NIM owing to tight liquidity, we see a 37bps fall in NIM (calc.) from 3.0% to 2.6% since cost of bank borrowings (35% share) may further increase. Loan offtake has remained weak due to tech change and sprucing back-office capabilities. Company expects disbursals to pick-up in FY25, however, owing to stiff competition from banks especially in prime housing, we see a loan CAGR of 7% over FY24-26E. While we raise PAT for FY25/26E by 3%/4% due to higher NIM, ABV for FY25/26E is upgraded by 8%/10% led by reduction in GNPA and increase in PCR as most of the stress has been recognized. However, we remain cautious on loan growth and NIM due to competitive intensity. We tweak our multiple from 0.9x to 1.0x on Sep’25 ABV and increase TP from Rs460 to Rs540. Retain ‘HOLD’.

Growth remains weak but superior margins led to PAT beat: NII was ahead Rs21.0bn (PLe Rs20bn) driven by better NIM at 3.06% (PLe 2.90%) led by lower funding cost at 7.66% (PLe 7.82%). Loan growth was a slight miss at 4.8% YoY (PLe 5.1%) as disbursals at Rs151.8bn were lower (PLe Rs154.0bn) while repayments were higher at Rs119.7bn (PLe Rs112.1bn). Other income was softer at Rs415mn (PLe Rs483mn) offset by lower opex. PPoP was at Rs1.88bn (PLe Rs1.77bn) led by better NII/NIM. On asset quality; stage-2/stage-3 decreased QoQ by 53/7bps to 4.5%/4.3%. PCR improved QoQ from 41.2% to 48.6% due to ECL transfer from stage-2 to stage-3. Provisions were higher at Rs4.4bn (PLe Rs4.2bn). PAT was at Rs116.3bn (PLe Rs108.4bn).

Credit flow remains weak but likely to improve: Disbursals remained muted due to (1) new technology implementation and (2) organisational change from a 4-tier to 5-tier structure for strengthening back-office infrastructure. New cluster offices have been opened for underwriting and marketing, taking the total to 44 offices (earlier 24 offices). LICHF suggested that disbursals for FY25 would enhance as TAT has reduced since (1) tech issues are resolved and (2) operational capability has improved. However, due to competitive intensity from banks which, we see loan CAGR of 7% over FY24-26E. States like Telangana, Karnataka, parts of North/North East India are seeing good growth.

NIM guided to fall post FY24; focus on recoveries: Reported NIM for Q3’24 was 3.0% and due to constrained liquidity, management expects a worst case YoY decline of 10-15bps. However, as bank borrowings (35%) are further repriced upwards, funding cost increase in FY25 may surpass that of yield increase. On asset quality, Stage-3 product wise split was: IHL–1.7%, non-housing IL–6.5% and corporate including project loans–40.8%. On recoveries, an ARC committee is formed and external consultant is hired for guidance. First phase involves transferring 10 large accounts to ARCs.

Rating: ACCUMULATE

Target Price : INR 614

Upside : 8%

CMP : INR 567 (as on 02 February 2024)

Strength anticipated in Q4

Strong operational performance

Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLIFE IN) achieved a quarterly sales of INR 4.4bn, with volume of 0.37mn sqft. Sales value showed a drop of 3% QoQ and 2% YoY. It launched 0.62msft of saleable area at Mahindra Citadel – Phase 2 in Pune and Happinest Palghar 2 – Phase 2, which received good traction. Average realization soared 45% QoQ and 62% YoY, led by the increased sales of premium inventory in the sales mix. Revenue from operations was INR 820mn, down 56% YoY but up 361% QoQ. To the total, the residential segment contributed INR 807mn and IC & IC segment INR 13mn.

Integrated cities and industrial cluster segment – Milestone quarter

The Integrated Cities & Industrial Cluster segment experienced a sluggish first half (H1), but saw significant improvement in Q3, marking Q3 the most successful quarter to date. MLIFE secured a land leasing of 77.4acres, generating a lease income of INR 2,238mn, at ~7x of Q2FY24 and ~3.2x of Q3FY23 level. This achievement is attributed to the robust performance of MWC Jaipur, which leased ~60 acres of land in Q3.

Promising project pipeline for Q4FY24

MLIFE saw a robust launch pipeline for the final quarter of the fiscal year. Recently, it obtained RERA approvals for Mahindra Vista (Kandivali project), with the first phase comprising INR 12bn worth of premium housing inventory (scheduled for a launch in Q4). Additionally, projects in Wagholi Pune, Hosur Road Bengaluru, and Lakefront Phase 2 Chennai are slated for launch in Q4, collectively amounting to an inventory of ~INR 14.5bn. The Malad Redevelopment Project is also in the pipeline, although it could be rolled over to Q1FY25.

Valuation: Revise to Accumulate with a higher TP of INR 614

MLIFE is geared to seize mega business development opportunities. The positive progress on the Thane land parcel, strong launch pipeline with huge captive land bank offer robust operational visibility in the medium term. Due to delayed project deliveries, we pare our revenue by 17% for FY24E and 20% for FY25E and introduce FY26E. So, we revise to Accumulate from Buy but at a higher TP of INR 614 from INR 588, on 1.25x one-year forward NAV.

The private port operator has earmarked about ₹6,000 crore for acquiring strategic assets, with an aim to bolster its presence in an industry dominated by the Adani Group. The firm is exploring a stake acquisition in a government-owned port slated for privatization, a senior executive of the company said. Arun Maheshwari, joint managing director and chief executive of JSW Infra, said the company has one of the strongest balance sheets in the ports sector and the headroom is good enough to expand aggressively, as long as the opportunity is value accretive. JSW Group is evaluating all privatization prospects offered by the government, including the ambitious trans-shipment port project at Galathea Bay in the Great Nicobar Island. (Read the full story here.)

Benchmark indices were in the green after momentarily slipping into the red.

At 11 am, Sensex was up 197.11 points or 0.27% at 71,928.53 and Nifty was up 80.65 points or 0.37% at 21,852.35.

Fintech firm Infibeam Avenues announced a strategic alliance between its flagship payment brand, CCAvenue and IDFC First Bank to provide extensive credit card EMI solutions. With this partnership CCAvenue will offer easy payment services, complementing the existing BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) facilities already offered to merchants. The integration of CCAvenue’s EMI solutions into IDFC First Bank’s credit card systems will offer customers a convenient and flexible payment experience, setting a new standard in the industry.

The NBFC said in a clarification to the exchanges that it “has not been in any negotiations” to acquire Paytm’s wallet business, on Monday night. The Mukesh Ambani-led financial services provider issued a statement to the exchanges to clarify on news reports which stated that it is in talks to acquire Paytm wallet. On January 31, the Reserve Bank of India had barred Paytm Payments Bank from undertaking any banking activities after February 29, citing non-compliance with KYC guidelines and other issues.

The FMCG major is slated to report a 2% YoY increase in consolidated net profit when it reports it Q3FY24 results on Tuesday, February 6. Analysts peg the company’s net profit at ₹566 crore, compared to the ₹556.8 crore it earned in the year-ago period. The also see muted growth in Q3FY24 on the back of a high base (anniversarisation of price hikes), some price cuts, high competition and low single-digit volume growth. This will restrict revenue growth at 3 percent YoY at ₹4,303 crore for the quarter.

Rating: ACCUMULATE

Target Price : INR 536

Upside : 7%

CMP : INR 500 (as on 02 February 2024)

Firing on all cylinders

Average room rate up 17%

Indian Hotel Company (IH IN) reported a topline growth of 17% to INR 20bn, as estimated, on 470bps occupancy growth and 17% increase in ARR. Room revenues grew 21% to INR 9.8bn and F&B revenue was INR 7bn, up 11% YoY. Management fees grew 12.6% YoY to INR 1.3bn. EBITDA grew 23% YoY to INR 7.3bn and margin expanded 187bps to 37.3% on cost management. Going forward too, IH does not expect any challenge to contain costs.

Pace of new hotel openings to increase in FY25

With industry-leading portfolio addition, IH is on track to open 20 hotels in FY24 and two each month in FY25. Growth may continue to be asset light. IH is on strong footing, with a pipeline of 11,114 keys to be operationalized by FY27. It will continue to enjoy higher room rates amidst balanced demand and supply dynamics. RevPAR growth is likely to be strong in the next two years, led by limited new supplies coming in its core markets and healthy mix of transient customer mix.

Mass markets – IH may launch two new brands

IH plans to launch two new brand in the next six months. The positioning of the brands may be lower than Vivanta and may cater to the mass markets. The management plans to introduce a new brand or reimagine an existing one once existing brands cross the 100-hotels milestone. IH plans to introduce full service hotels in small cities with a banqueting space. Once launched, it plans to traction to 50 hotels quickly (may start with >10 hotels before launch of a new brand).

Valuations: Revise to Accumulate; new TP at INR 536

IH’s fortunes are closely linked to economic growth and disposable incomes, both of which may grow in the short-to-long term. IH is set to grow in terms of room additions at 23% in FY23-25E, higher ARR CAGR of 10% and a spike in the share of its F&B business (39% of topline), led by continued demand momentum. We marginally tweak FY24E/25E EBITDA/PAT and introduce FY26E estimates. Due to 28% run-up in stock in the last 3 months we revise IH to Accumulate from Buy, but with TP raised to INR 536 from INR 465, on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA (roll over to FY26E).

Benchmark indices were in the green after momentarily slipping into the red.

At 10 am, Sensex was up 279.95 points or 0.39% at 72,011.37 and Nifty was up 91.25 points or 0.42% at 21,862.95.

Despite the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) approval of the HDFC Bank Group’s plans to acquire aggregate holding of up to 9.50 percent in the IndusInd Bank, shares of IndusInd Bank and HDFC Bank are trading flat in the early morning session.

IndusInd share price today opened upside and went on to touch an intraday high of ₹1548.90 apiece level on BSE, logging marginal rise against Monday’s close of ₹1539.25 per share on BSE. However, HDFC Bank share price is trading red after touching an intraday low of ₹1438.85 per share on BSE. (Read the full story here.)

Yes Bank in a filing to BSE said it has received an intimation from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) dated February 5 saying the apex bank has accorded its approval to HDFC Bank Limited for acquiring aggregate holding of up to 9.50 per cent of the paid-up share capital or voting rights of the bank.

YES Bank said that the RBI, while granting the above referred approval, also conveyed that if the applicant fails to acquire major shareholding within a period of one year from the date of aforesaid RBI letter, the approval shall stand cancelled.

Adani Total Gas has entered into a mutual support agreement with INOX India under which both will get a “preferred partner” status for the delivery of LNG and LCNG equipment and services to identify and explore possible collaboration opportunities with an aim to strengthen the LNG ecosystem in the country. As preferred partners, ATGL will get certain project-level benefits, which include preferential treatment to ATGL and access to advanced scheduling, and consideration for collaborative opportunities for establishing LNG/LCNG stations, LNG satellite stations, transitioning to LNG as a transport fuel, LNG logistics, as well as developing small-scale liquid hydrogen solutions for the industry. (Read the full story here.)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has approved HDFC Bank’s proposal to acquire “aggregate holding” of up to 9.50 percent in the paid-up share capital or voting rights of IndusInd Bank, the latter informed the exchanges.

The approval, granted through an RBI letter dated February 5, 2024, is based on HDFC Bank’s application to the central bank.

To clarify the details, HDFC Bank told CNBC-TV18 that the stake acquisition in IndusInd Bank is not intended for HDFC Bank, but for HDFC Group. (Read the full story here.)

Euphoria has gripped stocks of government-owned companies, with their rally over the past three months making the benchmark Sensex’s returns pale in comparison, and prompting notes of caution from analysts.

The latest leg of the rally from 26 October has seen the BSE PSU index return 52.6% to 18,123.77 against the Sensex’s modest 13.6% gain to 71,731.42 on Monday. Investor frenzy for the stocks drove the index up to a RECord 18,428.25 during the day. (Read the full story here.)

Indian benchmarks started the day in the green.

Sensex was up 92.79 points, or 0.13%, at 71,82s4.21 and Nifty was up 27.30 points, or 0.13%, at 21,799 at market open.

Sensex was up 232.69 points, or 0.32%, at 71,964.11 and Nifty was up 55.55 points, or 0.26%, at 21,827.25 during pre-open.

Airtel, Tata Motors, Power Grid Corp., UltraTech Cement, and JSW Steel were the top gainers on Sensex.

BANK NIFTY continued to underperform the broader markets, fills the intraday gaps and again witnessed pressure to close lower by 145 points.

The broader positive momentum will be only above of 46,400 levels and on the downside the 200 day average and double bottoms at 44,700 will be a strong support level.

RSI is oversold on intraday hourly charts and crossover of the average line would build positive momentum.

Bank Nifty highest call OI has moved to 46,500 CE while on the downside moved higher to 45,500 for the put OI for the weekly expiry.

NIFTY-50 has once again witnessed profit booking from the higher range of 22,000 levels and retraced 50% of the previous day up move to close near the day’s low.

On the higher side the resistance levels are placed at 22000-22,100 levels while on the downside the support would be at 21,500-21,450 levels which would as reversal point.

RSI is witnessing and trending above the average line and other key technical indicators are mixed and could swing with respect to the trends in the index.

Highest call OI is at 22,000 strike while on the downside the highest put OI has moved higher to 21,700 for the weekly expiry.

Bharti Airtel’s consolidated net profit in the quarter ended December rose nearly 55% year-on-year to ₹2,442 crore, helped by subscriber additions and a rise in average revenue per user. It posted revenues of ₹37,900 crore during the quarter, up 5.9% from the same period last year. The Africa business reported a 92% fall in net profit to $15 million, with finance costs more than doubling to $352 million. The average revenue per user, or ARPU, a key metric of profitability, bettered market expectations at ₹208 per month, up 7.7% y-o-y and also higher than ₹203 it posted in the quarter ended September 2023.