- The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates on Tuesday and took on a more neutral tone.
- The Fed had a more dovish policy meeting, weakening the dollar.
- The US released better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data.
The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows bearish prospects as the dollar flexes its muscles once again, fueled by the resilience of the US economy.
Ups and downs of AUD/USD
AUD/USD had a bearish week where the RBA was less hawkish. Notably, the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates on Tuesday and took on a more neutral tone, reducing rate hike talks. As a result, rate-cut bets increased. Meanwhile, the Fed had a more dovish policy meeting, leading to a decline in the dollar.
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On Thursday, the pair soared when Australia released a blockbuster jobs report. Employment jumped while the unemployment rate fell, indicating a tight labor market. Finally, the pair fell when the US released better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data. Moreover, initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating tightness in the labor market.
Next week’s key events for AUD/USD
Next week might be relatively slow after a week packed with high-impact events. Investors will only focus on data from the US, including the durable goods orders and the gross domestic product. These reports will show the state of the economy, influencing the Fed’s rate cut outlook.
The orders for durable goods are a good indicator of the manufacturing sector, which makes up a big part of the US economy. Moreover, it shows the state of consumer spending. If consumers can afford to make big purchases, it is a good indicator of a strong economy.
Meanwhile, the gross domestic product will show economic growth and whether higher interest rates have impacted the economy.
AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: 0.5 Fib resistance holds firm
On the technical side, AUD/USD is falling after finding resistance at the 0.5 key Fib retracement level. Bears had taken control when the price broke below the 22-SMA and went on to make lower lows. However, the decline paused when bulls broke above the 22-SMA, allowing the AUD/USD to recover.
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Unfortunately, the rebound was shallow, showing it was a corrective move. As a result, bears took back control when the price retraced 50% of the previous downtrend. However, to confirm the continuation of the previous trend, bears must start making lower lows and highs. If the decline continues next week, the price will target the 0.6301 support level.
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