The euro rebounded by 0.45% to $1.0867, but Wednesday’s session was marked by a new all-time high for gold, which climbed no matter what the greenback did: it peaked at $2,790, while silver gained +1% to $34, still 3% below the $35 resistance level.
The euro appreciates sharply against the dollar, but also by +0.75% against the pound (at 0.8375, there is a sudden problem of confidence in British debt, which fell spectacularly between 3.30 and 4 p.m., reaching – at 4.41% – its worst level since May 29).
The euro is benefiting from the divergent trends in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic (upturn in the US, downturn in Europe).
Despite “robust” figures in the US (employment and growth), T-Bonds are down -2pts, while Bunds are up +5pts and Italian BTPs +6pts.
The Dollar remains neglected (the ‘$-Index’ is down -0.3% towards 104.00) despite the rebound in private-sector job creation with +233,000 in October (after 159,000 in September), its strongest upward acceleration since July 2023, with a figure more than 2 times higher than expected (115.000), according to the monthly survey by business services firm ADP.
‘Even taking into account the context of post-hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October. As the year draws to a close, hiring in the US is proving to be robust and resilient overall’, reacts Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
No surprise, however, with GDP (gross domestic product): it grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, according to the Commerce Department’s very first estimate, thus slowing slightly on the 3% figure for the second quarter.
‘This is also the eighth quarter out of the last nine to post growth in excess of 2%’.
This growth is mainly attributable to higher consumer spending (thanks to a surge in credit card outstandings), exports and federal government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, rose.
The PCE price inflation index was estimated at +1.5% unadjusted and +2.2% excluding food and energy, down significantly on the previous quarter’s levels of +2.5% and +2.8% respectively.
Leaving the USA for Europe, there were also some eagerly-awaited figures, such as Germany’s inflation rate (or CPI): up +2% on October 2023, compared with 1.6% the previous month, according to Destatis’ preliminary estimate.
Consumer prices are estimated to have risen sequentially by 0.4% over the month to September 2024. The ‘core’ inflation rate excluding food and energy, often referred to as underlying inflation, would have stood at 2.9% annualized in October, after 2.7% in September.
Announced this morning, French GDP growth in volume terms accelerated moderately in the third quarter of 2024, according to Insee: it thus advanced by 0.4%, after +0.2% in the second quarter, boosted by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Among the many other data released this morning were the first GDP estimates for Germany and the eurozone, as well as the European Commission’s ESI economic sentiment indices.
In Q3 2024, GDP rose by 0.4% in the Eurozone and 0.3% in the EU (thanks to France and Italy), compared to the previous quarter, according to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, following increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively in Q2.
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