By Chibuike Oguh and Alun John
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar was flat against major currencies on Friday as markets digested a slew of economic data that supported the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy path.
A gauge of U.S. producer prices was unchanged in September, the Labor Department reported, the latest economic data to indicate the Fed will likely cut rates again next month.
Consumer prices in September rose 0.3%, according to data released on Thursday, slightly hotter than expected, while weekly jobless claims surged, pointing to labor-market weakness. The weekly jobless claims data was skewed by Hurricane Helene. Next week’s data will be affected by Hurricane Milton, the second hurricane in two weeks to hit the southeast U.S.
The euro was flat at $1.1093, the pound was up 0.08% at $1.3072, while the dollar was up 0.35% against the Japanese yen at 149.12.
The dollar index was flat at 102.91, taking a breather after a recent steady climb that took it above 103 on Thursday, its highest since mid-August on the back of traders reducing bets on further jumbo interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at its remaining meetings this year.
Markets are betting a nearly 91% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s next meeting and 9% probability of no cut, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool.
“That slightly higher inflation print has really backed the market away from being overly aggressive on how deep they were looking for the interest-rate cuts to go by the end of the year,” said Amarjit Sahota, executive director at Klarity FX in San Francisco. “So there was already an overprice in there and that’s basically unwound this week.”
Britain’s economy grew in August after two consecutive months of stagnation, providing some relief to finance minister Rachel Reeves ahead of the new Labour government’s first budget later this month.
However, in addition to being broadly steady on the dollar the pound was little changed on the euro at 83.67 pence to the common currency.
Traders are also watching French politics, after the government on Thursday delivered its 2025 budget with plans for 60 billion euros ($65.5 billion) worth of spending cuts and tax hikes on the wealthy and big companies to tackle a soaring fiscal deficit.
The budget is unlikely to pass until December, as French Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his allies in President Emmanuel Macron’s camp lack a majority by a sizeable margin and will have little choice but to accept numerous concessions.
Markets are also awaiting a news conference from China’s finance ministry on fiscal policy on Saturday. The Chinese yuan strengthened 0.22% against the greenback to 7.067 per dollar.
The Australian dollar strengthened 0.22% versus the greenback to $0.6753, while the New Zealand dollar was at $0.611 after the central bank on Wednesday slashed rates by a half point and hinted at further cuts to come.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 5.38% to $62,930.00. Ethereum rose 3.8% to $2,456.70.
“The market is satisfied because there’s nothing there that really tells against the narrative that the Fed is cutting; the only debate is how fast they’re going to cut,” said Steven Englander, head of Global G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered in New York.
“Overall, the data have been slightly encouraging to that narrative and none of the data have been discouraging to the narrative that the Fed is cutting rates.”
Currency bid prices at 11 October 07:51 p.m.
GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Dollar index 102.91 102.89 0.02% 1.52% 102.99 102.76
Euro/Dollar 1.0935 1.0938 -0.02% -0.93% $1.0953 $1.0927
Dollar/Yen 149.13 148.58 0.36% 5.72% 149.28 148.51
Euro/Yen 1.0935 162.48 0.37% 4.79% 163.4 162.32
Dollar/Swiss 0.8572 0.8563 0.11% 1.86% 0.8585 0.856
Sterling/Dollar 1.3068 1.3061 0.08% 2.72% $1.3082 $1.3042
Dollar/Canadian 1.3759 1.3742 0.13% 3.8% 1.3785 1.3726
Aussie/Dollar 0.6753 0.6742 0.19% -0.93% $0.6759 $0.6726
Euro/Swiss 0.9374 0.9364 0.11% 0.95% 0.9387 0.9363
Euro/Sterling 0.8367 0.8373 -0.07% -3.47% 0.8383 0.8365
NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.611 0.6095 0.27% -3.29% $0.6119 0.6072
Dollar/Norway 10.6961 10.7222 -0.24% 5.54% 10.7637 10.6837
Euro/Norway 11.6971 11.7412 -0.38% 4.22% 11.772 11.694
Dollar/Sweden 10.3693 10.3744 -0.05% 3% 10.4157 10.355
Euro/Sweden 11.3402 11.3617 -0.19% 1.93% 11.3883 11.3336
(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York and Alun John in London; Editiing by Kim Coghill, Andrew Heavens, Jonathan Oatis and Rod Nickel)
