EURO 2024 play-off semi-final preview | European Qualifiers

Twelve nations are counting down to the UEFA EURO 2024 play-off semi-finals on Thursday 21 March, when six will make it through to the final hurdle.

UEFA.com looks at the key storylines ahead of the ties, including Estonia plotting a surprise in Poland, in-form strikers Artem Dovbyk and Edin Džeko going head to head, and several countries yearning for a first taste of the final tournament this summer.

A: Poland vs Estonia

Estonia may have the toughest task of any play-off hopefuls on paper as they face a Poland team unbeaten in their last 20 home EURO qualifying matches (W15 D5), dating back to 2006. However, they will draw hope from the fact they won the last meeting of these nations back in 2012, when Konstantin Vassiljev scored the only goal late on.

Now 39, the Flora midfielder will miss this game through injury but can draw level with Martin Reim as their most-capped player with 157 appearances if Estonia make it to the play-off final. “We won’t be favourites, that’s obvious,” said Vassiljev, who played in Poland for Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia Białystok. “However, the dream of qualifying for EURO must carry us. It’s great and possible if we overcome our own limitations and give even more of ourselves than usual.”

Did you know?
Estonia finished EURO qualifying with just one point from eight matches but earned their play-off spot based on their performances in the 2022/23 UEFA Nations League.

A: Wales vs Finland

Wales are another side with a formidable recent home record in EURO qualifying – they have lost just one of their last 14 (W10 D3) and are four games unbeaten against Finland, dating back to 2009. Two of those four fixtures ended in victory with Kieffer Moore on target in both their Nations League wins in 2020.

Striker Moore may play a pivotal role in this tie too, after clearly taking coach Robert Page’s words on board following the draw in November. “It’s an opportunity to maybe influence some of our players who aren’t playing week in, week out, to go and play some games in January,” he said. “To get us in an even better place from a physical point of view come March.” Moore struck six times in his first nine matches after joining Ipswich Town on loan during the transfer window while David Brooks is another to benefit from more minutes after his loan switch to Southampton.

Did you know?
None of Finland’s last 20 EURO qualifying matches have finished level.

B: Israel vs Iceland

Israel came desperately close to automatic qualification, ending only two points behind Switzerland in a tight Group I, but have showed their mettle under pressure in recent years, particularly when gaining promotion to League A for the next edition of the Nations League by winning their 2022/23 League B group.

These nations drew 2-2 in both meetings in that competition so another close-run encounter is likely in Budapest. Iceland extended the contract of Åge Hareide in January and the coach insists that his charges will reach the EURO finals. “We’re going to go to Germany,” he said. “I have great faith in the team and the players. They are a talented and ambitious group, the staff and the framework of the team is first class, and we can get results with solidarity and good organisation.”

Did you know?
These nations have met five times previously and Iceland have never beaten Israel (D3 L2).

B: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Ukraine

Ukraine picked up four points against Bosnia and Herzegovina in World Cup qualifying two years ago, drawing at home and winning 2-0 away. Artem Dovbyk came off the bench to clinch that victory and the striker has been one of the success stories of this season after swapping Dnipro-1 for Girona in the summer.

The 26-year-old was La Liga’s joint-top scorer on 14 goals alongside Jude Bellingham following a hat-trick against Sevilla in January and this tie pits him against the hosts’ own goal machine in Edin Džeko, who has also been in a rich vein of scoring form after his summer switch to Fenerbahçe. “It is clear that Ukraine are tough opponents,” said Džeko, before giving a nod to his opposite number. “They have several outstanding individuals whose form is fantastic. Most of them play for strong European clubs and, as a team, they are very cohesive.”

Did you know?
None of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s last 12 home matches have ended in a draw (W6 L6).

C: Greece vs Kazakhstan

Greece coach Gus Poyet could not resist dreaming about reaching EURO 2024 after the finals draw. “Knowing the possible group we will be part of, it makes qualifying even more important,” he said. “The possibility of a derby against Türkiye, the chance of a lifetime to face Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo, and measuring our strength against Czechia increases our desire to go to the EURO. But of course we have a lot of respect and have to concentrate on the tough matches of the play-offs, starting with Kazakhstan.”

But if Greece are excited then what of Kazakhstan? They have never qualified for a major finals but their form is at its highest level in the nation’s history heading into these play-offs. Magomed Adiev’s men won six of their Group H games, including a 3-2 success against Denmark and victories away to Northern Ireland and Finland – they had only managed seven wins across their previous four EURO qualifying campaigns.

Did you know?
Greece have won all three of their previous meetings with Kazakhstan, though they all took place when they were European champions between 2004 and 2006.

C: Georgia vs Luxembourg

This tie pits together two nations who have never been to a senior final tournament with Luxembourg riding the crest of a wave in a similar fashion to Kazakhstan. The Red Lions won five games on their way to a third-placed finish in Group J, beating Bosnia and Herzegovina home and away and taking four points off Iceland. That achievement is all the more incredible considering Luxembourg started the campaign with only eight wins in 117 matches in EURO qualifying history.

“Every one of my players, the people in charge in the association, myself, we’re looking forward to the game against Georgia,” said coach Luc Holtz, who has been in charge since 2010. “When you’re so close, you want to go to the European Championship. We are convinced that we can make the impossible possible and make sporting history.” Their chances will doubtless be increased given Georgia will be without suspended talisman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Did you know?
Luxembourg and Georgia have met four times, all friendlies. Georgia have won two and drawn one, with Luxembourg edging the last encounter 1-0 in 2018.