Trump Media & Technology Group stock (DJT) extended its five-week surge on Monday, closing up more than 21% following Donald Trump’s highly criticized rally at Manhattan’s Madison Square Garden (MSG) over the weekend as investors bet on improved chances the former president wins the November election.
At current levels, the stock is trading at its highest level since mid-July, with shares up about 240% from their September lows.
Other Trump-related stocks moved in tandem with DJT. Mobile advertising software company Phunware (PHUN), which has ties to the former president, edged up in earlier trading on Monday before erasing those gains to close flat. Conservative-leaning video platform Rumble (RUM) climbed nearly 15%.
Trump’s rally sparked backlash from both sides of the political aisle after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made inflammatory jokes about Latinos and the Black community, while anti-immigration comments also dominated headlines.
The surge in DJT stock is unlikely to continue beyond the short term. One current investor warned that if Trump loses the election next week, shares of DJT could plunge to $0.
“It’s a binary bet on the election,” Matthew Tuttle, CEO of investment fund Tuttle Capital Management, told Yahoo Finance’s Catalysts show on Monday.
Tuttle, who currently owns put options on the stock, said the trajectory of shares hinges on “a buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading strategy.
“I would imagine that the day after him winning, you’d see this come down,” he surmised. “If he loses, I think it goes to zero.”
Shares in the company, the home of the Republican nominee’s social media platform Truth Social, have seen a recent rise as both domestic and overseas betting markets shift in favor of a Trump victory, with prediction sites like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi all showing Trump’s presidential chances ahead of those of Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
National polls, however, show both candidates in an incredibly tight race, especially in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, which are likely to decide the fate of the election.
The recovery in shares comes after the stock traded at its lowest level since the company’s debut following the expiration of its highly publicized lockup period last month. Shares had also been under pressure, as previous polling around early September saw Harris edging slightly ahead of the former president.
Trump’s recent campaign momentum, which recently included a stop at a local Pennsylvania McDonald’s, follows an appearance by Elon Musk at his rally in Butler, Pa., earlier this month. It was the same location where the former president survived an assassination attempt in July.
