Stock markets (^IXIC,^GSPC, ^DJI) ended the trading week on a mixed note, but the Nasdaq index managed to notch a new record high. Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre breaks down the top takeaways of the trading day takeaways from Wall Street.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode.
This post was written by Angel Smith
Video Transcript
The NASDAQ and S and P 500 lock in a winning week as the NASDAQ closes at another record here with more on the train day takeaways.
Let’s get to Yahoo Finance very own, Jared Blick, Jared Apple is back.
That’s my biggest take away for the week.
We searched to record highs finally after a lull in the action.
And let’s go to our NASDAQ 100 heat map here where I’m going to show the price action for the week.
There you go.
What?
You’re gonna first notice, guess what Apple was on top yesterday.
It’s not on top today.
I had a losing day and Microsoft is bigger by just a hair, but check out NVIDIA right by it there.
I’m going to change this to intraday and then actually to market cap and you can see how close these are, Josh in just creeping up on Apple, which is creeping up on Microsoft.
These three could easily, easily switch place any day here.
But why Apple, why is this important?
Well, I did this, I presented this earlier in the week when Apple breaks out the way it has.
Uh it tends to get continuation this shows what happens a day a week, a month quarter, a year later, on average, 33% in gains a year later, percent positive, 88% of the time.
Not quite as good when you go down to a week later.
But still these are really solid gains.
And one more thing, Josh, I wanna show you, I I prepared this uh at the beginning of the year, it looks pretty good for a bit.
But then look at that September, September bad for Apple.
This goes all the way back to 1982.
So basically 40 years of history here and you can see June also a negative month.
Ok. We’re in June right now, but obviously it’s not a negative month for Apple just yet.
Uh But all that shows is that this is gonna be an incredible tail and potentially in July or August when a stock bucks bucks seasonality.
So Apple being positive right now, that just means that the tail winds are that much more bullish.
It’s so interesting that because I wonder how Jared, how much of this is folks get.
Is this just excitement building for Tim Cook taking the stage?
You know, any of those new iphones sell the news.
Yeah, I think a lot of it was WW DC tends to happen in June.
So maybe a sell the news event, but this goes back 40 years.
I found the seasonality pa uh if this exists pre iphone, you can go back to the nineties and you will still see these patterns so pretty powerful there.
No, we gotta move on.
So we gotta talk about the, the record stocks that we had in stocks this week, those records in light of CP I in light of the fed.
Now, this is another chart I update pre periodically.
This goes back to the beginning of the bull market in October of 2022 this purple line of spy.
So it’s basically the S and P 500.
And these other lines show you how market reacted on different report days.
So for instance, CP I is in blue, that’s all the way up here.
This produced 16 net spy points over the last year and a half or so.
And then you have the jobs report that’s about eight or nine points.
What’s interesting is the fed decision that are you telling me J Powell doesn’t matter?
Is that what this is telling me?
Very interesting.
What I think we can glean from this is that there’s not that much event risk on fed Day.
In other words, the FED is doing a decent job of communication.
So if you remember way back when Powell started this whole thing, uh at the, at the Fed, he was event risk.
This guy could tank the market with any press conference.
That’s not what we’re seeing anymore.
So maybe he’s learned.
All right.
Third point, Jared, you got it cash on the sidelines at a record latest b of a money market fund tally is showing we are north, well north of six trillion in in assets.
This goes back to before the global financial crisis.
And what I want to show you is these peaks here because we are at another peak.
Here’s a peak, it peaked in January of 2009.
This peak was May of 2020 these peaks coincide with the change in interest rates.
So when you see this going up, that’s because money market rates are going up short term, interest rates are going up as the fed.
But when the fed pivots thinks about cutting rates, that’s when we see money market funds compared to these, uh, these rates are not as competitive anymore.
So we saw this big rush of money out of money market funds in the wake of the global financial crisis went into stocks, same thing in 2020 in the latter part of 2020.
And what are we gonna get there now?
Where does it flow into Jared?
Exactly.
It’s all going to the game stop.
Obviously.
No, it’s gonna go, you know, it depends on how quickly the fed comes down in interest rates.
But, you know, this money generally goes into risk assets.
All right, Jared Blacky.
Thank you, my friend.
That was great.
