- Republicans maintain a narrow 218-213 majority in the House, with Democrats investing heavily in Florida special elections to flip seats.
- Democratic candidates Josh Weil and Gay Valimont have raised substantially more campaign funds ($9.5-$10 million and $6.5 million, respectively) than their Republican opponents (about $1 million each).
- Republicans allege that Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue is using potentially suspicious fundraising methods, with most contributions coming from outside Florida.
With four current vacancies, the House of Representatives currently sits at a balance of 218 to 213, with Republicans in control — and Democrats have pushed full steam ahead to gain seats through massive funding for Florida’s special elections, set for Tuesday.
This balance of 218-213 does not include former Florida Reps. Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz or Reps. Sylvester Turner, D-Texas, and Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz, who recently died.
The race for Waltz’s seat has earned The New York Times’ characterization of an “unlikely scene of a multimillion-dollar spending brawl.”
Similarly, The Guardian mused over why campaign funds are so much higher than the average in these Florida races. The outlet reported that if Democrats lose the elections, it would be “yet another sign that the party is destined for a long period in the wilderness amid historic lows of its popularity in recent polls.”
How campaign funds compare between the Republican and Democratic nominees
Appearing on Fox News, Monday, Republican nominee for Florida’s 6th Congressional District and current Florida state Sen. Randy Fine reported that his campaign has generated about $1 million, while his opponent, Josh Weil has generated about $9.5 million. Some reports from the Daytona Beach News-Journal show Weil’s funds surpassing $10 million.
Similarly, Gay Valimont, the Democratic nominee running against Jimmy Patronis to fill Gaetz’s seat for Florida’s 1st Congressional District, generated about $6.5 million.
Fine and Patronis raised the amount a special election campaign typically sees, around $1 million, according to campaign finance reporting site, Open Secrets. Normally scheduled elections generate about twice that, totaling about $2 million.
Based out of Florida, the Daytona Beach News Journal detailed Weil’s roughly $10 million in funds. The average donation was $29, and they came in from over 240,000 unique donors from all 50 states, plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.
About $600,000 of Weil’s campaign money came out of Floridian pockets and about $365,000 came from donors in California. So, at least $8.5 million had to come from other states and territories.
However, in a statement to Newsweek, Weil attributed his funding to the “grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine.” Weil has also promised he’s refused to take money from “corporate PAC,” per Daytona Beach.
Fine says Weil’s campaign funds are coming from Act Blue
Fine acknowledged Weil’s campaign funds coming largely from across the country rather from Floridians themselves, and he attributed Weil’s massive fundraising success to the Democratic fundraising platform, Act Blue.
“Look, he has raised money from all over the country through Act Blue — which as many people know raises money in suspicious ways,” Fine said.
The platform came under scrutiny from Congress after House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., posted to X at the end of 2024 that the House Administration Committee would be conducting an investigation into ActBlue this year.
“ActBlue was accepting foreign gift cards until September. This is ILLEGAL,” he wrote.
Utah Sen. Mike Lee responded to Johnson in another post, writing, “Federal campaign-finance laws apparently apply only to Republicans. And exist to help Democrats.”
The committee appears to be following through with its mid-December promise, as seen in a letter addressed to the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent requesting all suspicious transactions.
“The Committees remain concerned with recent reports suggesting fraud and evasion of campaign finance law by individuals exploiting online contribution platforms, especially ActBlue,” the letter read.
Can Trump endorsements rival unbalanced campaign funds?
During a tele-rally with Donald Trump on Friday, the president endorsed Fine full-heartedly. “Randy will always have a very open door to the Oval Office,” he said. “He will be there whenever I need him, and he wants to be there whenever we need him. He wants to be there for you.”
Then again on Monday morning, Trump took to X to continue his “complete and total endorsement” of the nominee.
“America First Patriot Randy Fine is running to represent the Wonderful People of Florida’s 6th Congressional District!” he wrote. “A highly successful, Harvard educated businessman, and greatly respected State Legislator, Randy has been a tremendous Voice for MAGA.”
While Waltz won his House seat by 33%, polling reported by Florida Politics shows the gap much narrower in Tuesday’s special election.
The poll by St. Pete Polls showed Fine winning a little over 48% and Weil winning a little over 44%.
To the West in the state’s panhandle, the race between Patronis and Valimont is also shaping up to be closer than expected, but a flip is still improbable, per Florida Politics. The last Democrat elected to represent Florida’s 1st Congressional District was Earl Hutto in 1992.
Gaetz won the seat by 32 percentage points against Valimont last November.
However, Valimont outraised Patronis by several million, with campaign funds totaling $6.5 million.
Where are the other special elections taking place?
Turner was elected to represent Texas’ 18th Congressional District in January 2025, but unexpectedly died in early March. His district includes part of Houston, and the general election has not been scheduled.
Grijalva served in the House for over 22 years, since 2003. After battling lung cancer for nearly a year, Grijalva died in mid-March. His daughter Adelita Grijalva announced her run for his seat on X. This general election has not been scheduled yet either.
