“As a head of the country, which is rich with fossil fuels, of course, we will defend the right of these countries to continue investments and to continue production,” he said.
“Petrostates are perfecting a sinister COP playbook,” said Patrick Galey, a fossil fuel investigator with Global Witness. “Just like the UAE, Azerbaijan is planning a massive increase in gas production. Just like the UAE, Azerbaijan plans to legitimize its authoritarian regime by hosting these global talks. And just like the UAE, Azerbaijan appears set to use COP to develop its international business ties.”
Baku, which is among the most oil and gas-dependent economies of any country in the world, is expected to receive an additional $40 billion in foreign direct investment to increase its exports by 2034. In the past year alone, the South Caucasus country has struck deals with France’s TotalEnergies and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to increase exploration and drilling.
In March, Aliyev warned that “anti-fossil fuel trends” should not stymie investment and called on European public banks to drop their bans on supporting fossil fuel infrastructure to help him expand the Southern Gas Corridor — a 3,500-kilometer pipeline network that ships gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe. The European Investment Bank — which loaned hundreds of millions of euros to building the pipeline — told POLITICO it would not consider financing its expansion.
Gas politics
Azerbaijan is regarded as one of the world’s most autocratic states, and Aliyev’s regime ensures “the state’s oil and gas revenues” benefit “privileged elites rather than the general population,” according to a recent report from Freedom House.
The country has also fought several military conflicts with neighboring Armenia in recent years, including a recent offensive to reconquer the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the attack, the European Parliament approved targeted sanctions against Aliyev and other top officials and called for “the EU to reduce its dependency on Azeri gas imports.”
