Investments

CoStar 2023 UK Review: The Year Under the Microscope


It has been a year many in UK commercial property will be hoping to forget, and yet there is plenty to celebrate and reflect on. CoStar News talks to participants about what stood out, what surprised and what green shoots are emerging for 2024.

The figures for transactional activity are tough reading. CoStar’s current projections are for total UK commercial real estate investment to come in at around £40 billion, down around a third from 2022’s £60 billion and the weakest year since 2012.

A number of major collapses and stumbles have outlined how interlinked global real estate markets are and how cheap debt that suddenly gets a lot more expensive can cause the dominos to fall.

The standout collapse, if that is the right description, was that of European investor Signa, which had major stakes in some of the world’s most famous buildings, including London’s Selfridges and New York’s Chrysler Building. Austrian property billionaire René Benko’s group built a €27 billion ($29 billion) portfolio backed by at least €13 billion in debt during the years when the cost of borrowing was at record lows. The sharp rise in interest rates in recent months has led Signa Holding, the central company, to file for administration.

More expected, but equally headline grabbing, have been the ongoing troubles surrounding WeWork and its drive to scale back its giant coworking portfolio before it runs out of cash. Though many in property consider it an isolated case of hubris for a company that grew too quickly and too far, it has still been an unhelpful backdrop as office markets attempt to shake off negative sentiment about the likely impact of the working-from-home trend.

Cautionary tales such as Signa’s and WeWork’s are part of the reason transactions have fallen so precipitously this year. Hopes that things would get better in the second half of 2023 were clearly in the air at the Mipim real estate conference in March but they have not materialised, as shown by the recent round of updates from the leading brokers.

CBRE, JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, Savills and Knight Frank all pushed back projections for when deal-making would return in their third-quarter results.

Real estate companies have understandably responded by consolidating to build strength in emerging growth areas where they feel underweight, or seek to diversify portfolios by joining with like-minded companies.

The year was bookended by major merger news in the listed sector, with two of the capital’s largest landlords in Shaftesbury and Capco joining forces to form Shaftesbury Capital in March, and negotiations beginning in December between two more of the UK’s largest landlords, this time long-income focused REITs LondonMetric and Secure Income REIT.

In brokerage, the big story was the completion of US group Newmark’s takeover of the UK’s Gerald Eve – revealed by CoStar News a whole year prior. There were notable takeovers and mergers in retail and leisure, with CBRE buying asset manager Sovereign Centros, and two deals revealed by CoStar News: Savills buying London agent Nash Bond, and Fawcett Mead and MMX Retail merging to create MMX Retail.

The good news is Europe and, particularly the UK, has repriced quickly compared with the rest of the world, and cold comfort can be taken from the fact that that similar pain is being felt in pretty much every jurisdiction.

In that context, it is not really a surprise that the world’s biggest real estate investors have been raising vast sums as they prepare to step back into the market.

By December BlackRock was the latest global giant to announce a major capital raise for a European value-add fund citing the “biggest buying opportunity for European real estate since 2008”. The UK is clearly at the top of its wish list.

In October, Blackstone said it had raised $3.2 billion (£2.62 billion) in the third quarter for its seventh European opportunistic fund. At the end of November, Hines, the global real estate investment, development and property management company, said it had topped its fundraising goal in the final closing of its latest European real estate value fund, to raise over €1.6 billion or $1.75 billion.

What these global real estate investment groups are targeting is interesting.

Hines says the Hines European Value Fund 3 has already invested over €300 million of equity to assemble a portfolio of four assets in three markets. The fund is prioritising three sectors – purpose-built student accommodation, distribution logistics and highly sustainable offices in prime locations, because they have “significant unmet demand and present opportunities for ongoing rental growth”.

In its second quarter earnings, Blackstone said that globally, Europe and, in particular, logistics were among its favoured real estate target investments. It no longer intends to invest in traditional property sectors, such as retail or office, which have been hit by the remote working trend. While it has not gone into the split, a hefty amount of its investment appetite is focused on real estate debt as opposed to equity investments.

BlackRock is targeting real estate boosted by what it terms the “mega forces” of demographic shifts, digital disruption and the transition to a low-carbon economy and a net zero built environment. Its focus will be student housing and homes, and logistics and data centres in under-supplied markets. Strategically it will focus on recapitalising, repositioning and rebuilding assets.

So while there are differences, logistics, residential and real estate debt in the UK are looking particularly attractive to a very large pool of smart capital.

The sense that the UK appears good value thanks to a speedy price correction and the likelihood rates rises have peaked was explored in a CoStar article in November. This has not yet fed into deals but the positive commentary from leading participants feels valid. Who knows, the UK’s listed real estate companies might start to see share prices moving in the right direction too after a protracted period in the doldrums.

Alex Lukesch, managing director and head of the European investments team at Madison International Realty, sums up the principal frustration of 2023 as the significant distance between the prices investors were happy to pay and asset owners were willing to accept, as well as the continued unpredictability of yields or cap rates, if you are in the US. It all resulted in a “turgid transactions market with very few significant deals to speak of and a lack of confidence on valuations”.

But Lukesch does think the topping out of interest rates and falling inflation are setting the stage for renewed confidence over the next couple of years and there is also a “wave of debt maturities” looming, meaning a greater need for equity “injections”.

Keith Breslauer, managing director at Patron Capital, says what has emerged is a market where “you need to be able to get down to the nitty gritty across different submarkets, with real development and bricks and mortar experience, and to be a true asset manager”. He adds opportunities are emerging and says the “greatest treasures are often not visible at first”.

Cristina Garcia-Peri, senior partner at real asset investment firm Azora, says the interest rate shock meant the real estate industry was “hit by a torpedo right at the floating line” this year. But she says some will look back at 2023 and think it was the year the interest rate environment started “normalising” and the “inflated liquidity that produced so many excesses across all industries, and real estate in particular, started to disappear from the economy”. Garcia-Peri says central banks have, “again” acted too late.

Bank of England in the City of London on 25th March 2022 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district (CBD) of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images) (Getty Images)

Moves from the Bank of England (pictured) and other central banks were closely watched.

Her company is planning a strategy that combines investing into the repricing and dislocation across asset classes and continuing to invest in its longstanding “strong conviction themes” of living and leisure, alongside new sectors, such as data centres.

Chris Taylor, chief executive, real estate, Federated Hermes, says UK real estate market has had to contend with multiple challenges that have hit investor sentiment and radically altered occupational demand for quite some time, and 2023 has been no different. He says this has not only led to a rapid repricing of real estate markets but “accentuated the existing structural trends affecting occupational demand leading to an increasing awareness of the environmental and societal risks associated with real asset investment”.

“[This] is vital to provide investors with the confidence needed. Confidence in planning policies at a national and local level and major infrastructure schemes such as HS2 will be key to how we seek to continue creating value through development projects in placemaking and build to rent activities ahead.

“Securing long-term patient capital from global investors to fund these new projects is critically dependent upon their confidence in the UK and its political stability; last Autumn’s Budget turmoil caused damage to these investors’ confidence in the UK as an attractive destination for long term investment in real assets.”

Offices is the real estate sector most linked to concerns about the post-COVID landscape, to some degree replacing retail as a perceived problem area. But those in the space point out there are strong underlying trends, particularly for the best, newest and most sustainable buildings.

The year has ended with a bang with the last week seeing a raft of big deals – including Mapletree signing Wood for a 120,000-square-foot office in Reading, and major lettings in the West End by BEAM at 50 Berkeley Street and the Crown Estate at 20 Air Street.

A huge deal at 400 Longwater helped end the year with a bang.

But make no mistake, it has been tough out there unless your building is really the best in its market.

According to CoStar’s projections, office take-up in the UK is expected to come in at around 28 million square feet, down about 20% year-over-year and 25% below the five-year average. It is also 40% down on figures between 2015-19 where the five-year average was 48 million square feet.

There has been a split between London and the South East, and the regional markets. CoStar figures show that the latter have been driven by smaller deals to a greater extent than any other year in the past decade and a half.

This reflects a combination of factors including companies downsizing after embracing hybrid working and a reluctance among larger firms to commit to office moves in light of raised costs and persistent economic weakness.

As of mid-December, 35% of this year’s take-up across Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester was in the smallest size brackets of 1,000-2,499 square feet and 2,500-4,999 square feet. The percentage figure was the highest in a decade.

The 5,000-9,999 square feet range accounted for 23% of activity, its biggest percentage since 2012. The next two size bands up the scale accounted for smaller but above-average shares of 19% and 21%, respectively.

The largest two size ranges have been exceptionally quiet in 2023, continuing last year’s marked drop-off. As of mid-December, the 50,000-99,999 square feet and 100,000 square feet-plus size brackets had recorded just a single letting each.

In London and the South East it has been a different story, with smaller, sub-15,000 square foot lettings falling away, while large headquarters moves continued to be relatively common.

Savills says investment volumes in the regions have been affected by the weaker market sentiment, with £1.9 billion of sales recorded at the end of the third quarter, which was 62% below 2022 and the five-year average for the same time period. There was £506 million transacted in the third quarter of 2023, the lowest quarterly total since the third quarter of 2008.

Savills points out that price discovery has been challenging. Focusing on the South East region, it reports £1.45 billion of stock being marketed that remains unsold at the current pricing as of 19 December. The total discount on assets traded in 2023 compared with their previous sale within the last five years is 50%,

Stephen Down, executive director and chairman of Central London and international investment, Savills, says it’s no secret that commercial real estate has faced a difficult year and central London offices have clearly been hit.

“The challenging economic backdrop, rising cost of debt and continued discussion about returning to the office has resulted in a spotlight being shone on the office market, which central London has not been immune to. A total of £7.1 billion was invested into the central London office market this year to date, which is largely due to these headwinds, but also due to the amount of time it’s taking to get deals over the line. With much more stringent investment committee processes and general caution in the market, we’re seeing it taking much longer to reach completions.”

Downs has seen increased interest from overseas investors in London, as they “see the nuances of the market here”, compared with other cities across the globe.

“We’ve carried out over 1,000 inspections with investors from over 87 countries this year on all our sales, so albeit a slow 12 months in terms of deals done, we’re confident we will see an increase in activity over the coming year.”

Nick Braybrook, partner, development head of London capital markets, Knight Frank, says the stand-out theme in London has been the dominance of private capital. He said it accounted for 52% of London office transactions so far this year and 60% in the third quarter, versus a long-run average of 36%.

Braybrook says the other standout feature of the year is “the amazing performance of the prime leasing market – headline and net effective rents are now rising and that hasn’t had enough coverage in my view”.

Ed Smith, head of national offices market agency at BNP Paribas Real Estate, says the biggest emerging issue in the South East of England is supply. “There is going to be a dearth of stock of any quality in key markets for a period of time as you cannot justify speccing when yields have moved to a benchmark of maybe 7% for prime in the South East, for instance, while build costs have lifted so much. Rents have to move on.”

Charles Dady, international partner and head of Cushman & Wakefield’s South East office agency team, says take-up across his region in 2023 is expected to total 2.5 million square feet, 32% down on the five-year average.

“While most occupiers are reducing their footprint, there is a strong bias towards prime space which is driving leasing velocity and headline rents for the best product,” he points out.

Cushman figures also find that of the schemes delivered in what it terms the post-pandemic period, 54% of space completed has already been let with another 11% under offer, for space reaching practical completion in 2024, 41% is already let or under offer.

Rents are reaching new levels with Maidenhead recording growth of 34% this year and Reading expected to show a similar performance next year. “Against a backdrop of higher build costs, interest rates and investment yields, continued growth in prime office rents is essential if new space is to be developed in the next cycle,” Dady says.

To some extent, retail has bounced back in 2023 as investors and occupiers begin to get more comfortable with, and interested in, a sector hit hard by structural changes and then the pandemic.

Lawrence Hutchings, chief executive officer at Capital & Regional, the UK retail and shopping centre investor and developer, says it has been a “very busy year operationally, with a strong momentum and recovery in footfall and sales”.

The biggest story, he says, is that the physical store is stronger than ever.

“The post-COVID return to store has been strong while at the same time we have seen some of the online businesses stumble. We knew the physical stores were producing more profit than online platforms but rising interest rates means it has all come to bear this year. What we have learned is the store plays a very, very important role. That is, as traditional sales point, and then, in that, it provides a way for retailers to lower their logistics costs, and finally for the first time, physical stores are a cheaper way of acquiring customers than online. What has emerged is how important physical stores are.”

The former Wilko in Preston. (CoStar)

Hutchings says that is already playing into the fundamentals. “Retailers want stores and supply-demand economics means we are seeing strong bids, for instance, on empty Wilko stores. It is all related to the role of the store re-emerging as really important. There is not rental growth immediately but this is the first stage of that coming.”

In terms of capital markets, Hutchings says the story has moved to when rates will fall and by how much. “On top of that the [valuation] reset has happened for retail. […] Really there has been a 50%-plus reset in retail already. A lot of people are saying valuations have been broadly stable for a while and so what we are seeing is it is easier for people to define price. The new normal looks more like the old normal.”

Charlie Barke, a proprietary partner at Knight Frank, who leads the retail department in the UK, describes 2023 as the year where retail “suddenly was no longer the ugly duckling in the pond”. He adds that it hasn’t yet grown up to be a beautiful swan but it’s “going in the right direction with shopping centres being the only mainstream sector to show a positive return for a 12-month period to October”.

He says investment volumes remain low with sellers feeling less pressure in the sector than others.  “As there was in 2009, it feels there are pockets of opportunity in the sector where one can buy fundamentally sound assets very cheaply and benefit from fairly quick yield correction in an improving climate.”

Retailers are more optimistic on the future prospects for shopping centres than investors, he says.

“Ingka/IKEA and Frasers group outbidding more traditional investors to acquire, between them, four shopping centres this year is surely a sign that the underlying fundamentals here are better than some of the sector sceptics would have you believe.”

Jack Lloyd, director, retail investment, Avison Young UK, says the cost-of-living crisis led to a squeeze on discretionary spend this year but that meant discounters like Aldi, The Range, and Poundland benefited from customers “trading down,” resulting in increased sales.

Despite an overall decline in retail sector investment, the US’s Realty Income has continued its acquisitive strategy for retail parks and supermarkets, Lloyd says.

“Supermarket transactions are expected to surpass £2 billion, driven by sale and leasebacks from Asda, Morrisons, and Waitrose seeking capital. In the most buoyant retail sub-sector, retail park transactions slowed in the second half due to a pricing ‘gap’ with volumes forecast to total £2.1 billion for 2023, down on £3.15 billion in 2022 and 22% lower than the 10-year average.”

Lloyd says the market is hoping for a loosening of the consumer spending squeeze, anticipating falling inflation and a stable Bank of England base rate next year.

Next year, expect more of the same: “Retailers will continue seeking prime locations, presenting opportunities for rental growth, the divide between ‘the best’ and ‘the rest’ will persist, alongside the rationalisation of retailers’ estates.”

Richard Ellwood, head of customer partnerships and marketing at The Crown Estate, says the reigning monarch’s property company has seen a number of brand and lifestyle trends “continue and solidify” over the year.

 “We’ve observed an evolution in the mix of brands across our portfolio, seeing a higher number of quality independent retailers sitting seamlessly alongside their larger, global counterparts.

 “When combined, this has led to an increased demand for workspaces near or on our high streets. This is no more evident than in the West End, as we welcome a new office entrant to our portfolio, with Paul Weiss taking over 80,000 square feet of space at 20 Air Street.”

Building Photo - 7469164

CoStar

20 Air Street. (CoStar)

John Griffin, joint managing director and head of investment at Lunson Mitchenall, says rising interest rates in 2023 resulted in yield repricing and a standoff between buyers and sellers during the first half of the year, but says he is more optimistic about retail investment in 2024 with 10-year gilt rates trending down and a coming together of vendors and purchasers.

“As ever, the occupational side is key and, with the loss of a number of weaker domestic retailers, asset managers have seized the opportunity to bring in robust international brands and innovative leisure concepts. For the continued revitalisation of our retail landscape, it will be crucial to continue on this trajectory; adapting to evolving consumer preferences and focusing on the importance of robust long-term investment and a curated approach to asset management.”

On the investment side, Griffin is seeing interest for good assets at the right price. “A deeper senior debt market would widen the pool of buyers for the larger lot sizes which is something we can hope to see in 2024.”

Industrial, for so long on a booming trajectory at odds with retail and offices, necessarily saw pricing and occupancy fall this year. In a historic context, it remains in favour with occupiers and investors alike.

CoStar is projecting UK-wide take-up of around 61 million square feet, down around 25% from 2022 (82 million square feet) and nearly 50% below the heights of 2021 (117 million square feet) when the pandemic lifted demand as people turned to online transactions.

Len Rosso, head of industrial and logistics at Colliers, says the year has been slower than recent ones but he is still anticipating more than 20 million square feet of big box warehouses taken up, broadly 25% short of the 10-year pre-COVID average.

“What’s worth noting is the performance of prime development land this year as there has been a significant level of interest. While vendors’ expectations are not always met, there is clearly a recovery in the making and a large appetite for prime sites.”

Rosso says it is clear that industrial remains the sector of choice for investors thanks to its “underlying principles of strong supply and demand, as well as the continued rental growth”. Colliers is forecasting rental growth of 6% this year.

Rosso expects interest rates to start coming down towards the end of the next 12 months, and that yields will also start to come in for industrial because of that.

“Then [in] 2025 we’re expecting to see a pinch point in supply for occupiers, as currently the spec pipeline shows a lag in development. If the economy starts to recover as expected we’ll see the pent-up demand for space by online retailers start to materialise, which will in turn push rents on again and increase build to suit and spec development.”

Andrew Coombs, chief executive of Sirius Real Estate, says what stood out most in 2023 was the resilient nature of high-yielding asset classes, such as multilet industrial, and the extent to which demand has remained strong across the light industrial and storage sectors in particular.

“On the occupier side, demand for high quality affordable products continues to underpin strong rental growth, and the SME market showed itself once more as the lifeblood of the UK economy. On the investment side, despite ongoing volatility at the macro level – and perhaps because of it, with rising interest rates leading to an increase in forced sellers in some parts of the sector – 2023 saw some interesting deals come to market, which provided good opportunities for well-capitalised companies with flexible balance sheets and a strong platform behind them to operate assets successfully and drive real value.”

Team of Research Scientists Working On Computer, with Medical Equipment, Analyzing Blood and Genetic Material Samples with Special Machines in the Modern Laboratory. (Getty Images, Getty Images)

Life sciences is a growth area. (Getty Images)

Simon Hope, co-managing director at Warehouse REIT and executive director at Life Science REIT, says the “thematics” show the US is the innovator and the UK and Europe are the adopters in these areas. “Think Amazon, think warehouses, in life sciences think Boston, Alexandria, Blackstone and BioMed, and we are very much behind the development curve day to day. If you look at Segro as a pure play, it’s very well run as the biggest industrial REIT in Europe, but across the board what caught people unawares this year was everyone thought the trends of COVID would go on for ever. But what we have seen is some capital was not robust and for many it turned out the gearing was too high. In the listed sector all REITs have been trying to degear, to reduce debt and the cost of capital.”

Hope says it is no surprise volume levels have been at an all-time low for transactions.

“Ordinarily you would not trade assets when you would realise enormous losses but the market has reset moving into 2024.”

Hope says, overall, 2024 will see a significant improvement for real estate.

“Ten-year gilts are below 4% and monies will start flowing back into the public markets because your options have got sharper on high-yielding government income. The other thing to look at is China. It has very high youth unemployment and a major challenge around [its] residential market – they have deflation not inflation. Does that not have a deflationary effect on the component parts for new age businesses? You cannot naturally predict but one outcome could be interest rates come down quicker than anybody thinks.”

Mark Bladon, the head of real estate, Investec, says anyone predicting in January that interest rates would be at 5.25% at year-end would have been in a “possible minority of one”, adding that the Bank of England’s wrong forecasts shows how even experts can be blindsided by fast-moving macro-economic events.

Bladon says despite the very clear impact that rising rates have had on the real estate market the drivers of demand in the sectors where Investec is exposed have remained encouraging. For example, in student living, applications body UCAS is expecting 1 million higher education applicants in 2030, up from around three quarters of a million in 2022. Office occupancy rates have reached their highest level since the end of the national lockdown in March 2021 and completed build-to-rent schemes are up 13% year on year.

While overall lending volumes unsurprisingly fell in 2023, two things stood out, Bladon says.

“Firstly, debt funds experienced a higher default rate than bank lenders, which was the inevitable result of their keenness to lend at higher loan to value ratios, over-extending themselves to meet demand from borrowers seeking outsized returns. We expect to see more casualties in 2024.

“More encouragingly, while it is getting harder to write bigger ticket loans, liquidity has remained for loans between £20 million and £100 million.”

Bladon says investor sentiment will change next year as global interest rates plateau and then begin to fall. He says there is the possibility of a recovery of a similar size to the post-COVID bounce back.

“Access to finance is likely to continue to be restricted over the next 12 months, however for the right schemes and sponsors, pricing is likely to remain extremely competitive.”

Vincent Nobel, head of asset-based lending, Federated Hermes, points out that the interest rate rises have been of direct benefit to floating rate debt investors, such as those invested in real estate debt, and that has led investors to see the real value that financing can add to their portfolios. “The relative volatility in the underlying real estate market has caused bank lenders in particular to reduce their lending appetite, which has helped the margins that non-bank lenders can charge on new loans. For new investments, lenders have seen both rates and margins rise, showing the relative value the asset class can deliver.”

Nobel says it is ever more important to have collateral of high quality.

“Properties that feel dated, are in need of refurbishment or are in the ‘wrong’ location will struggle to attract new financing. This is therefore an important theme for next year; a continuing divergence between assets that can find buyers and lenders, and those that cannot.”

The living sector, and alternatives such as life sciences and data centres, have been in favour in 2023 and that sees no signings of changing, as investors see opportunities to innovate and steal a march in non traditional, fledgling sectors that are supported by strong fundamentals.

Mark Bladon, at Investec, points out that global institutional appetite for exposure to the UK living sector continued to rise in 2023 at the expense of others, a theme that will continue into next year.

Thomas Vandecasteele, managing director of UK and Portugal-focused construction and real estate group Legendre UK, says looking ahead to the housing market in 2024, the private-for-sale market remains challenging, due to ongoing shortages and slower demand for homes”.

But that is creating opportunities for developers to be innovative in introducing new home ownership models and alternatives to home ownership. He says trends like co-living are gaining traction, offering smaller living spaces.

“Addressing the housing crisis will require creative solutions. Public-private partnerships, especially involving housing associations, could play a crucial role.”

Alan Kypriadis, managing director and senior partner of architect Patriarche UK, says the recent commitment from the UK government of £520 million funding to manufacturing industries, including life sciences, is positive. “The UK is facing a shortage of specialist laboratory space, and the challenge is to find innovative ways to adapt current building stock and accelerate delivery to meet this increasing demand.”

What Kypriadis wants is the focus to spread nationwide in the next few years, developing facilities outside the Golden Triangle. “Cities like Manchester, Birmingham, and Newcastle all benefit from some of the top research institutions and expanding their campuses would not only spark economic growth and employment within these regions but help to boost the UK life science sector overall.”

Despite the challenges transactionally, UK real estate has had another fascinating year on the whole, one rich in innovation and progress on vital projects for the country.

Major City tower developments such as 40 Leadenhall and 8 Bishopsgate have pushed the boundaries again for sustainability and amenities, and tenants are paying strong rents as they vie for the space.

Regeneration schemes in city centres such as the Heart of the City in Sheffield, Paradise in Birmingham, Capital Quarter in Cardiff, Leeds’s Wellington Place, and the Knowledge Quarter in London’s King’s Cross have continued to improve vital hubs across the country.

1 Cardiff Square. (CoStar)

The trends that seemed to have been cemented by COVID-19 that are detrimental to real estate – such as reduced office occupancy and shopping in stores – are being to a degree reversed.

Warehouse REIT and Life Science REIT’s Simon Hope says it is increasingly clear that the trends of the COVID era are not permanent.

“If I look at being effective, ultimately people sell to people. The footfall numbers for trains, car parks, buses and offices are all improving. Again the Americans are leading the way and the big corporates, stipulating five days a week back in the office. In terms of our teams we have ‘morning prayers’ on a Monday morning to catch up and we have done more business in the last month than the last six. You need to meet people to do business and get in front of them to get business closed.”

Tony Brown, global head of M&G Real Estate, says that as the world comes to terms with higher for longer interest rates, global real estate investors can no longer rely on strong yield compression to drive returns and the focus should shift to generating returns through income, such as investing in real estate debt, or through high income growth, by targeting the residential or industrial sectors.

“The 1980s showed us that, despite a high inflation and high interest rate environment, performance can still be delivered even with a persistent negative spread of property yields relative to bonds, as it was compensated by strong rental growth – a beneficiary of sustained inflation given property is a real asset.”

Tristram Gethin, founding partner of Quadrant Estates, says 2024 could see more real estate investors being tempted to start developing offices again, but caution will be the order of the day. “Improving macroeconomic tailwinds alone will not be enough to drive returns, and a focus on fast growing occupiers and their needs will be an important consideration for success. Occupiers themselves will need to face the reality of rents rising in real terms, which is a situation they have not experienced for decades. However, for developers that have seen build costs treble in recent years, upward shift in asset values alone will no longer compensate and these costs will need to be passed on.”

In particular Gethin says investors that can create buildings that appeal to the requirements of new high-growth sectors such as education, life sciences and fintech will be rewarded.

The CoStar News team would like to thank all of our readers for tuning in this year and wish you all a merry Christmas and happy New Year.



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