Gibraltar moved to license ADI Predictstreet as Europe’s first regulated prediction market. As some remain skeptical, the operator is bound to face some industry scrutiny…
For years, the prediction market sector has existed in a legal grey zone, but now, as commercial momentum accelerates, Europe is showing signs it is moving towards regulation in some parts. What is emerging is a patchwork of competing regulatory approaches.
At the centre of this shift sits Gibraltar, a jurisdiction that has been punching above its weight in digital regulation for a long time. Its decision to license ADI Predictstreet—widely regarded as Europe’s first formally approved prediction market operator—marks a decisive move from theory to practice.
Andrew Lyman, the territory’s gambling commissioner and executive director, is under no illusion about the complexity. “Some prediction markets, of which there are different derivative models sitting at the confluence of financial services, financial derivatives and gambling/quasi gambling, would fit neatly into the definition of betting intermediary and others would not, tending more towards [financial services]—even as models expand.”
Gibraltar has, in effect, made the decision to regulate first and define later. “The jurisdiction has the agility to flex as we learn to accommodate different models,” Lyman explains, adding that this “does not rule out the development of a bespoke prediction market regulatory regime that is neither ‘gambling’ nor ‘financial services’.”
That approach is born out of both ambition and necessity. “Gibraltar has always prided itself on first mover status, and whilst ‘angst’ plays out in the UK and Europe, being open for business and working collaboratively with those businesses in a regulatory ‘sandbox’ puts up the ‘open for business sign’,” Lyman says. For Gibraltar, hesitation elsewhere is an opportunity.
Standing still more risky than moving quickly
The licensing of ADI Predictstreet illustrates that philosophy in action. Granted in what officials described as “record time”, the approval has attracted scrutiny—particularly from observers wary of speed in a high-risk, poorly understood sector. Prediction markets do not fit comfortably into existing narratives, and that alone is enough to raise suspicion.
“We looked at this in a focused way at fitness and propriety, business process and competence,” Lyman says. “A known fact is a fact and it doesn’t get better or worse in terms of time.” The process, he insists, was rigorous, even if it required him to have “burnt the midnight oil”.
He has little patience with the broader debate. “One doesn’t gain real world experience or develop an economic and regulatory proposition by watching from the sidelines and shouting ‘foul’,” he argues. For Lyman, the greater risk lies not in moving too quickly, but in standing still.
That argument is underpinned by a familiar concern in gambling policy: the black market. Overly restrictive regimes, he suggests, do not eliminate demand; they redirect it. Licensing emerging models instead provides a controlled environment in which consumer protection and anti-money laundering standards can be enforced. “This is just the opposite of driving people to the so-called ‘black market’,” he says. “It’s providing a regulatory home for responsible businesses who want to treat customers fairly with a focus on consumer protection and AML.”
ADI Predictstreet´s partnership with FIFA
At first glance, ADI Predictstreet looks like a typical new player in the growing prediction market space. It describes itself as a “dynamic new forecasting platform” where users trade on the likelihood of future events. But the company is keen to distance itself from traditional gambling.
“Unlike traditional betting, where users wager against the house, prediction markets enable participants to trade with one another on the likelihood of future events, with prices reflecting collective market sentiment,” a spokesperson for ADI Predictstreet explains to iGB. Its role, they add, is “to facilitate this exchange within a structured and transparent framework, enabling informed predictions rather than wagering.”
This distinction underpins the company’s entire positioning. ADI Predictstreet emphasises that its model is “data-driven, not chance-based”, drawing on official datasets—including, crucially, decades of historical information from its partner FIFA—to inform pricing and participation. The aim is to shift user behaviour away from speculative betting toward something closer to evidence-based reasoning. Whether most users will see it that way is another matter.
Central to this is the idea of “collective intelligence at scale”. The platform combines users’ views to produce real-time estimates of how events might unfold. In theory, more users lead to better pricing, which in turn draws in more users.
Evolution through user interaction
Technology is presented as the enabler of this dynamic. ADI Predictstreet is built on ADI Chain, a blockchain-based infrastructure designed to support high-volume, real-time trading. According to the company, this architecture “allows us to bring a higher level of transparency and trust to the core mechanics of the platform”. Rather than relying on a central operator to set prices, markets evolve through user interaction, with the underlying system ensuring integrity and traceability. That is the theory. Regulators will be more interested in how it performs under stress.
ADI Predictstreet’s company culture
ADI Predictstreet’s corporate structure adds another layer of intrigue. The company is a subsidiary of Finstreet Limited, an Abu Dhabi-based holding company, itself part of a wider ecosystem under Sirius International Holding. This places it within a network of capital that blends financial infrastructure, digital assets and state-linked investment. Europe has become accustomed to such capital in football clubs and media rights. Its arrival in prediction markets may mean closer scrutiny.
The company is keen to emphasise its governance credentials. It operates “with its own CEO and governance structures” and is supported by “a team of experienced, credible industry leaders” with backgrounds in financial regulation and capital markets. “Governance and compliance are a core focus for the organisation,” the spokesperson says, pointing to a “robust framework to ensure we meet the highest standards across all markets in which we operate”
A new commercial category as FIFA embraces prediction markets
ADI Predictstreet’s structure is global, and there’s no doubt it aims to have worldwide reach. The company is pursuing what it describes as a “disciplined, jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction approach” to expansion, with a clear milestone in sight: the 2026 FIFA World Cup. As the tournament’s official prediction market partner, it has secured a platform of unprecedented scale.
“The FIFA World Cup 2026 will be the biggest sporting event ever,” the spokesperson notes, offering “a unique opportunity to scale the platform exponentially”. The company is currently operating in beta, “with a select group to ensure the product meets the high standards expected by both users and partners”, ahead of a broader roll out.
This is the first time FIFA has embraced a prediction market sponsor, effectively creating a new commercial category. How regulators will view it remains an open question. In several European countries, betting sponsorship is already under political pressure. If prediction markets are deemed similar, they may soon face the same constraints.
ADI Predictstreet appears to be taking a cautious approach. Alongside its core platform, it is developing a “free-to-play” offering designed to broaden access and soften regulatory friction. Combined with partnerships with media platforms such as DAZN, this suggests a layered strategy: monetised trading where permitted – but lighter engagement where it is not.
DAZN, for its part, sees prediction markets as a way to deepen fan interaction. “Dynamic prediction experiences can drive deeper, more continuous fan engagement and enjoyment,” a spokesperson tells iGB, allowing users to engage with “market sentiment, probability, and collective insight in real time”.
But it will be introduced at different speeds. “The availability of prediction experience will be determined on a market-by-market basis.” ADI Predictstreet´s spokesperson says.
A fragmented Europe
Europe’s biggest issue in the sector is fragmentation. While Gibraltar has moved decisively, others are trying to impose more structure before opening the gates. Malta is the clearest example. Rather than stretching existing gambling laws, it is exploring a statutory framework designed specifically for prediction markets. The aim is to define the category properly—setting boundaries around what constitutes trading, what constitutes betting, and where consumer protections should sit—before licences are widely granted.
A bespoke regime could offer greater legal certainty, particularly within the European Union, where cross-border consistency carries weight. It may also prove more durable if prediction markets begin to resemble financial instruments more closely. But it comes at a cost: time. By the time such frameworks are finalised, early movers may already have established themselves.
The divergence between Gibraltar and Malta hints at a broader European split. Some jurisdictions are experimenting, while larger ones hesitate or seek alignment with existing financial rules. For operators, this creates both opportunity and risk, as a licence in one jurisdiction does not guarantee access to another.
Prediction markets regulation is a ‘live policy debate’
For now, Gibraltar is trusting experience more than theory. “Prediction markets, their classification and how they access different markets under different legal classifications is a live policy debate,” Lyman says. His jurisdiction’s advantage, he argues, is that “we can move quickly from deliberations and words into action”.
For the wider industry, the stakes are high. Prediction markets are attracting a different demographic—“financially savvy customers with more disposable income”, as Lyman puts it—who may see participation as a form of trading rather than gambling. This could expand the market, but it also threatens to disrupt established business models.
Lyman’s message to those already in the market is direct. Even in the face of regulatory pressure, “you shouldn’t be thinking just of survival, but innovating to accommodate derivative models that can be leveraged from your brand”.
Europe’s regulators are unlikely to settle on a single approach any time soon. But the overall path is becoming clearer: What was once a niche idea is becoming a recognised, yet still debated, part of the digital economy. Gibraltar has chosen to lead that transition. In ADI Predictstreet, it has found a partner that embodies both the promise and the contradictions of the sector.
The rest of Europe faces a choice. It can move with caution towards its own frameworks, while others build the market in practice.
