Finance

Tesla stock on track to end week lower after capex guidance spooks investors


Tesla (TSLA) stock is on track to finish the week lower, reversing some of the prior week’s rally, as the company’s Q1 earnings report raised some concerns for investors.

Though Tesla beat on the top and bottom lines and confirmed some of its major projects are progressing toward production, investors were alarmed by Tesla’s rising capex spend toward its AI and robotics initiatives.

On Wednesday’s earnings call, CFO Vaibhav Taneja said the company’s 2026 estimate for capex will be “over $25 billion” and will result in negative free cash flow for the rest of the year.

Tesla stock initially jumped after the earnings were released, but rolled over following the capex announcement. Shares are down around 7% for the week.

“The previous outlook (of $20B) was already around 2x higher than Tesla’s previous peak, and the new outlook (of $25B) illuminates the scale of Tesla’s ambition,” Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter wrote in a note post earnings release.

Tesla did report that its Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and megapack battery production were all on schedule, with its Optimus robot production line aiming for a second quarter start.

Early Friday morning, CEO Elon Musk posted a Cybercab promo video to his social media platform X, with the quote “Cybercab has started production.” Musk previously mentioned that Cybercab started production on the earnings call, though he noted initial production “will be very slow.”

The Cybercab is Tesla’s purpose-built robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals, meant to eventually replace the company’s existing robotaxi fleet. The company plans to offer Cybercabs for sale to the general public sometime in the future.

NHTSA currently doesn’t allow vehicles for sale without a steering wheel and pedals, though the agency is proposing rule changes to that requirement. Tesla also said it would not be subject to the 2,500 annual production cap for autonomous vehicles, most likely through a self-certification waiver.

Cybercab production is one part of Tesla’s AI-driven product rollout. Tesla’s FSD (full self-driving) software, which powers its current robotaxi fleet in Austin, San Francisco, and the recently announced Houston and Dallas service areas, is poised to reach “unsupervised” status soon with an upgrade, though Musk says the company is taking its time with that release for safety.

Tesla reported that as of the end of Q1, it had 456,000 active monthly FSD subscribers, generating over $45 million a month in services revenue.

CHICAGO, IL - FEBRUARY 06: The Tesla Cybercab autonomous robotaxi is unveiled in a striking gold finish during the Media Preview of the 2026 Chicago Auto Show at McCormick Place on February 6, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois. The fully autonomous two-seater, featuring its signature butterfly doors and inductive charging (wireless) capabilities, is a centerpiece of the show's focus on the future of urban mobility. The 118th edition of the exposition marks a significant year for Tesla as it expands its presence at traditional auto shows with both experimental and consumer-ready electric vehicles. (Photo by Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Tesla Cybercab autonomous robotaxi is unveiled in a striking gold finish during the Media Preview of the 2026 Chicago Auto Show at McCormick Place on February 6, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois. (Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images) · Anadolu via Getty Images

In addition, Tesla said preparations for the company’s first large-scale Optimus factory “will begin shortly in Q2.”

The first-generation production line will be located at Tesla’s Fremont plant, where the Model S and Model X assembly lines will be converted for Optimus production.

Tesla has spent years building out its embodied AI, or physical AI, initiatives — from data centers and training clusters to train FSD to robotics infrastructure to build robots powered by Tesla software and, eventually, chips made in-house.

“We view this investment cycle as necessary to establish a durable leadership position in autonomy and physical AI, and remain confident in Tesla’s long-term trajectory,” Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco wrote in a note to clients this week.

Pras Subramanian is Lead Auto Reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.

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