Retail investors (non-institutional individual/public shareholders) own roughly 35–44% of Tesla (TSLA) stock, depending on the exact source and reporting date. This is one of the higher retail ownership levels among trillion-dollar market-cap companies. This is $380-440 billion of the $1.1 trillion valuation of Tesla. Half of the retail investors in Tesla could be long time holders of the stock.
SpaceX will IPO at $1.75-2 trillion and will have 30% of the $75 billion raise for retail investors. This might be 10% for general retail investors and 20% for Tesla investors. This would be $15 billion for Tesla investors.
This means for about $300 billion in Tesla investment there could be a $15 billion directed allocation. A 5% allocation of SpaceX relative to their Tesla holdings.
SpaceX (still private as of April 2026) is ~46% owned by insider Elon Musk, ~26% by major institutional/VC funds, and ~28% by employees plus other private investors/funds.
Many existing private investors and possibly a large portion of the 28% employees & private investors bucket — if the traditional lock-up is eliminated or heavily shortened/staggered. Bankers are explicitly considering letting existing shareholders sell from day one or in gradual tranches over the first few months.
3–6 months window, possible staggered releases (portions unlocking at 30/90/180 days). Some employees or smaller holders might face shorter standard-style restrictions (90–180 days).
10-20% of the total investment (5-10% of the 54% of the non-elon portion and maybe 10% of the Elon portion) might get sold by investors looking to diversify or funds that need to close out 10 year or other holding periods.
This could be 2-3% per month for the first 6 months. $40-60 billion per month. However, the float would approach most of the company as the shares mostly fully unlocked by the 6 month timeframe.
SpaceX will be in QQQ within 15 days and many other funds sooner and then SP500 within 12 months or earlier if the SP500 has early inclusion.
Together all index funds likely own 8–12%+ of Tesla. After 6 months or so all index funds will likely own 8-12% of SpaceX assuming SP500 inclusion happens within 6 months of the IPO.
Float Mechanics: Unlocking vs. Selling
Float = shares that are freely tradable by the public (total shares outstanding minus restricted/locked/insider-controlled shares). Both Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) use float-adjusted market-cap weighting, so float directly affects a stock’s index weight and how much ETFs must own.
Unlocking (lock-up expiration) immediately adds shares to the float — even if the holders have not yet sold a single share. Once the lock-up for a batch of shares ends, those shares are considered publicly available for trading purposes under index rules.
Selling by individuals and institutions does NOT increase the float further. It simply transfers ownership from the (now-unlocked) seller to a buyer.
All unlocked shares count as float right away upon lock-up expiration. The selling by individuals/institutions does not create extra float — it just disperses the already-unlocked shares into the broader market.SpaceX is reportedly planning shorter/staggered/flexible lock-ups (not the standard rigid 180 days) to avoid a single massive unlock cliff.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
