“The Asian steel and scrap landscape is going through a significant change. The traditional flows of scrap are no longer as predictable as they once were,” said Zain Nathani, managing director of Nathani Group.
“Steel production is shifting, and countries across Asia are reassessing their own geostrategies,” he added.
The shifting landscape is raising questions over where future steelmaking raw materials will come from, particularly as countries such as India and Vietnam rapidly expand their steelmaking capacity.
Crude steel production in India increased by 7.1% year on year to around 87 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, while Vietnam’s output surged by 26.9% to 15.2 million tonnes over the same period, according to World Steel Association (worldsteel) data.
India intends to develop a globally competitive steel industry targeting a production capacity of 300 million tonnes per year by 2030, with 35-40% of this material to come from the electric-arc furnace (EAF) and induction furnace (IF) steelmaking routes, per the country’s National Steel Policy.
Geopolitics shifts scrap flows
Recent disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East have exposed vulnerabilities in Asia’s raw-material supply chains, with higher freight costs and insurance premiums adding to procurement challenges.
The impact is particularly significant for India, which typically relies on scrap and crude oil from the Middle East. The South Asian country imported 513,867 tonnes of scrap from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2025, up from 389,450 tonnes in 2023, according to Indian customs data.
Disruptions to freight and logistics are forcing Indian mills and recyclers to reassess their procurement strategies, speakers at the conference said. This has also highlighted the appeal of shorter-haul supply routes, with some Asian mills increasingly turning to suppliers such as Japan for their scrap requirements.
Bangladesh, in particular, has increased its purchases of Japanese scrap. Its imports from Japan rose by 23.1% to around 800,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, from about 646,000 tonnes in the same period last year, according to Japan customs data.
The country’s dependence on imported scrap is closely linked to the structure of its steel industry, which is dominated by IFs and other scrap-based steelmaking routes, said Sanjoy Kumar Ghosh, head of supply chain management at BSRM Steels.
“If you see the Bangladesh’s steel industry, most [of it remains] dependent upon scrap,” said Ghosh.
Asian markets strengthen domestic supply
The disruption to established trade routes could ultimately accelerate efforts by Asian economies to build more resilient domestic sources of steelmaking raw materials, Nathani said.
“This is a good opportunity for countries to really look within their own ecosystem… The number one thing is increasing our domestic sources of scrap, and making sure there are policies in place,” Nathani added.
The push to strengthen domestic recycling capacity is attracting international investment, with Japanese companies among those expanding their presence in India’s recycling sector.
“Government policies are supportive and recycling ratio is going to be increased,” said Sanjay Mehta, director at MTC Group, pointing to extended producer responsibility (EPR) and other recycling policies that are encouraging investment.
India’s expanding steel production is expected to drive further growth in scrap consumption, creating opportunities for both domestic and international recycling companies, he said.
Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co invested in Mumbai-based MTC Group in 2024, eyeing growing demand for recycled steel raw materials.
According to Nathani, Japan’s approach to scrap could provide a model for other Asian economies seeking to improve resource security.
“It’s very interesting that Japan is a country where they don’t look at scrap as a commodity, they look at it as a strategic resource. I think that’s a real learning for us in India and how we can also look at our own domestic raw materials as a strategic resource,” he added.
Japan’s EAF growth could tighten exports
That strategic importance could become increasingly evident as Japan’s steelmakers accelerate their decarbonization efforts through the development of large-scale EAFs.
The expansion of EAF-based steelmaking is expected to increase domestic demand for ferrous scrap, potentially reducing the volume available for export and reshaping Japan’s role as a major supplier to Asian markets.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s public and private sectors have also stepped up efforts to strengthen the domestic scrap supply chain.
In April 2026, the Japanese government pledged around ¥1 trillion ($6.3 billion) in combined public and private investment by 2030 to strengthen domestic metal and plastic recycling capacity. The initiative targets an additional 2 million tonnes of annual processing capacity, supporting the development of high-grade green steel.
The prospect of stronger domestic demand has raised concerns among market participants that Japan could have less scrap available for export in the years ahead.
“[Domestic scrap] supply is expected to be flat or even decreasing due to our mature manufacturing sector and ageing population,” a Japanese trader told Fastmarkets, adding that this could put further pressure on scrap availability once the country’s large-scale EAFs become operational toward 2030.
However, other market participants were more cautious about the potential impact on exports, noting that much will depend on the scrap mix steelmakers choose to use in their new EAFs, as well as the plants’ operating levels.
“If they use mostly high-grade scrap, then there will still be a market for H2-grade material to be exported,” another Japanese industry source said.
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