00:00 Speaker A
Market didn’t like this report. Can’t say I’m surprised.
00:02 Jared Blikre
No, it was really interesting to see the market report, but also, we know from Fed Chair Warsh’s last Friday, uh last Friday’s Jackson Hole speech that he’s watching the market reaction. So the market tightened here. So what was the market reaction? We got stock futures down, rates are up, dollar is up, meanwhile, Bitcoin and gold are down. So yesterday’s debasement trade, which seemed to be on is reversing today. So what we’re seeing is a little bit of tightening by the market and Warsh likes that because he wants the market to do his job. This takes a little bit of pressure off of that September rate hike and here’s another reason why we might not see a September rate hike because when you dig into the report under the surface, you see it’s really strong in three different areas that I call the magnificent three. Restaurants and bars up 60,000, local government education up 42,000, healthcare up 13,000. That’s 114,000, which is 70% of the total 162,000. So these are lower income, lower wage jobs and uh so that kind of uh ameliorates some of the hawkishness that you might look at if you’re saying 60 162,000 plus another 55,000 added in those revisions.
00:53 Speaker A
Jared Blicry, you sound a little dovish here today.
00:55 Jared Blikre
I’m a little dovish. I think the Fed might skip September, just might, but it depends on what happens with inflation.
01:01 Speaker A
Uh and as I’m I’m I got those hawkish vibes. Jared Blikre sound a little dovish. Where where you stand?
01:06 Speaker C
I’m actually with Jared on this one. Uh yes, because I think that Governor Waller had a chance to sound hawkish yesterday and he didn’t take it. He didn’t take that chance before the blackout period. So I think that um a surprise to the market would be perhaps to hike rates. Even though I know that there’s a big division, there’s like about a 50-50 chance, right? But I’m with Jared on this one. I think that they stay steady. and then before the midterms, I think they’re going to stay steady. again, and look, they may be looking at the unemployment rate, which stayed the same. Uh you did see as Jared noted losses and information uh services, losses in financial activities. So those white collar jobs uh that you are seeing losses there, but you’re seeing gains on those other sectors that Jared mentioned.
